Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction: A Plus Odds Diamond In The Rough
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction: A Plus Odds Diamond In The Rough
We are juice enthusiasts but here and there we find some plus odds beauties. Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers has a nice plus money play for us to get into today. Let's get into my predictions, picks, and odds for Astros vs. Rangers.
Cristian Javier u2.5 Earned Runs (+105) ($100 to win $105)
*Line available at Caesars at time of publishing*
I don’t hop on plus odds bets often but we have a pretty nice track record when we do. This one is confusing to me, Javier has only started 3 games of his 7 pitching appearances but has only allowed 3+ ER once all year. It was actually last game that happened so I don’t expect him to go from dealing all year to back-to-back stinkers. One of his three starts was against this same Rangers team where he allowed two runs over 5 innings. A similar start could happen today and I will have no issues with that. He also pitched that well against them on the road where he plays significantly worse, tonight he will happily be home.
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Cristian Javier at home is a different beast. At Minute Maid Park we have seen Javier throw 12 innings this year and now allow a single run. He has an impressive 2.17 and 3.03 ERA at home in the previous two seasons. The guy is straight up better at home and has proven he can start and hit this number against this same Rangers team. The Rangers are batting a dreadful .218 against right handed pitching as well. This being plus odds just doesn’t make too much sense to me, Javier is still only 25 and the leap from last season to this season seems significant enough to put some stock in. He’s better in short bursts admittedly but I like this number regardless.
The Astros really just love beating up on Texas. This year they have won 4/5 against Texas and have limited their scoring a ton. My favorite part of earned runs bets is in the name of it. They have to be earned, we have already won a bet this year where the opposing team score 3 runs but the pitcher we bet on was only at fault for 2 of them so we still won the bet. We don’t have to worry about defenses making silly errors and if that’s the case then if anything it helps our unders because it will ride up the pitch count. For earned run props you will always want to go under, if you ever wanna go over you mine as well but on the first five team total because you get unearned runs to count as well. This is a great bet that I would have placed for -115 let alone +105.