Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Are the Brewers Primed for a Big Victory?
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Are the Brewers Primed for a Big Victory?
Despite struggling to a 5-6 record over its last 11 games, the Milwaukee Brewers enter the weekend with the third-best winning percentage (.632) in the National League. The Brewers were most experts’ preseason pick to win the National League Central, and they have not done much to this point after starting 24-14 to raise concerns. Skeptics would say Milwaukee has played by far the most manageable schedule in the majors, as just five of its games have come against teams over .500. By comparison, 27 other teams have played at least eight such games.
Milwaukee’s soft schedule continues in theory as they welcome the 13-26 Washington Nationals to town. Will the Brewers continue to feast on weak competition, or will Milwaukee’s mediocre play over the last two weeks result in another upset?
Read on for our prediction and the best play, and odds for tonight's series opener between the Nationals and Brewers.
Brewers vs. Nationals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: May 20, 2022
- Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: BSW, MASN, MLB Extra Innings
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Prediction
While pessimists will say that Milwaukee is under .500 in its last 11 games, optimists will say it has won its previous two series, including taking two of three games from the defending World Series Champion Braves. Milwaukee is also a dominant 12-5 at home (worse only than the Dodgers in the National League) and has a run differential of +39 in those 17 games.
Most of the attention surrounding Milwaukee’s pitching staff centers around the “big three” of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. However, tonight’s starter Eric Lauer (3-1, 2.60), ranks second among all Brewers starters in quality starts, ERA, WHIP (0.98), WAR (0.7), and strikeouts (49). Milwaukee’s moneyline odds are usually inflated when the more heralded Burnes and Woodruff take the mound, but Lauer remains an undervalued gem in the rotation.
Lauer tends to be burned by the long ball, as he has allowed seven home runs in 34.2 innings. He has allowed at least one home run in five of his six starts, and that weakness specifically got him in trouble in his last start against the Marlins. Lauer surrendered three home runs over five innings in a 9-3 loss, and that was his only start of the previous five in which he allowed more than one earned run.
The Nationals are not the type of offense built to exploit Lauer’s biggest weakness. Washington ranks 24th in OPS against left-handed pitching and 29th in the league with three home runs against lefties (out of 88 at-bats). Lauer is also especially tough on lefties, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is a staggering 1.33 against left-handed hitters versus 0.53 against right-handed hitters. That should help neutralize the power of Washington’s best left-handed hitter, Juan Soto, who has double the number of home runs as his next closest teammate.
Washington sends Erick Fedde (2-2, 4.24) to the mound, and the over is 5-0-2 in Fedde’s last seven road starts, including going 4-0-1 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record. We expect that to mean a lot of runs for the Brewers, who should also get a nice bounce-back start from Lauer.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Pick
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs (+110) (Bet $100 to win $110)
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