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The Padres and Giants meet for the fifth time this season, and MLB expert Mike Spector weighs in with his best play on the total, as each team tries to gain a leg up in the season series.

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Prediction: Will There Be A Pitching Duel in San Francisco?

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants met for the fourth time on Friday night, and if that game is any indication of what we will see from these two in-state rivals for the rest of the season, their final 15 games will be must-watch television.

The Padres evened the season series at two games apiece with a thrilling 8-7 victory in ten innings. The Giants tied the game with a two-run single with two outs in the ninth inning but ultimately dropped their fourth game in their last six.

Arguably the best pitching matchup of the day is in this afternoon tilt, as Joe Musgrove (4-0, 2.20) faces Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.49). Just 32 pitchers in baseball have at least four wins, and if either starting pitcher records a win, they would be just one of six pitchers with five wins.

Does a marquee pitching matchup mean we are in for a low-scoring battle?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and the odds for Saturday afternoon's game between the Padres and Giants.

Giants vs. Padres Game 2 Start Time and Where to Watch

Date: May 21, 2022

When: 4:05 PM ET

Where to Watch: FS1, Fox Deportes, MLB Extra Innings, NBC Sports Bay Area

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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Line Movement

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

Rodon’s beginning to his Giants career could not have started much better, as he pitched to a 1.80 ERA through his first five starts. However, he is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed eight runs on ten hits in just 3.2 innings against the Cardinals. Rodon is downright nasty against lefties, holding them to a .091 OBA and allowing just two hits all season. That should help neutralize Eric Hosmer, who ranks ninth in the league with a .324 batting average. 

Rodon is vulnerable against righties, allowing a .237 OBA and not inducing nearly as many groundballs. Righties elevate Rodon at a much more consistent rate, as his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 0.61 against right-handed batters compared to an even 1.00 ratio against lefties. That could get him into trouble against San Diego’s right-handed power hitters (Manny Machado, Luke Voit, and Wil Myers).

Joe Musgrove is off to a hot start, ranking seventh in WHIP (0.93) and 21st in OBA (.217) among all qualified pitchers. But even his hot start may not cure his issues against San Francisco, who has owned him for much of his career.

Musgrove is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA in seven career starts against the Giants. While many of these trends are rendered irrelevant as they date back several years, Musgrove’s inefficiencies are pertinent here, as five of his career starts against the Giants came in 2021. He pitched to a 6.08 ERA in those starts and allowed six of his seven career home runs to active Giants hitters in those 26.2 innings.

A projected seven-run total does not leave much margin for error for each starting pitcher. And given the issues each team’s bullpen had last night, we are happy to back the over on this low total.

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Pick

PICK: Padres-Giants OVER 7 Runs (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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