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I think the books are respecting a team here a little too much compared to what they should be. Let's dive into the Kansas City Royals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks odds, predictions, and pick.
ANALYSIS

Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction: Can Zack Greinke Limit The Hits?

I think the books are respecting a team here a little too much compared to what they should be. Let's dive into the Kansas City Royals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks odds, predictions, and pick.

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Zack Greinke u6.5 Hits Allowed (-137 ) (Bet $137 to win $100)

I understand why this line exists but I don’t have to agree with it. Let's get this bad stuff out of the way and we can spend the rest of the time focusing on the positives here. Greinke has allowed 10, 8, and 7 hits in his last three games, that’s horrific. We have reasons to be optimistic though, it’s worth noting that prior to this three game stretch he allowed 6 or less in the previous five games of the year so the prop still has a 5/8 hit rate on the year. A streak this bad shouldn’t continue much longer and the Diamondbacks seem like the perfect get right spot.

Arizona doesn’t exactly strike fear into me. The Diamondbacks bat an abysmal .214 against right handed pitching. This three game stretch has been bad for Greinke but it shouldn’t continue much longer, Greinke has been in the league for so long and will be able to tweak whatever mistakes he notices in his game as the season progresses. The Diamondbacks have a pretty good history vs Zack but nothing too outrageous. They have 10 hits in 35 at bats against him which is good for a .285 average. If they still hit him at that rate they would need 24-25 at bats today. Greinke is projected to go 6 innings today at the very most giving us an edge.

Greinke is weirdly a great road pitcher. If you disregard his last start on the road this year then that trend has continued. Last year he actually had a significantly better road ERA than home ERA by 1.42 earned runs per nine innings. I just think this number is one hit too high and Greinke could allow one hit each inning going six and still cash us. We don’t even need 1,2,3’s although I wouldn’t complain if he wanted to make it sweat free. Hits allowed props have been absolutely money, lets keep it that way.

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Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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