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The Orioles and Yankees meet for the 11th time in tonight's series opener in the Bronx, and MLB expert Mike Spector weighs in with his best prop play for this AL East matchup.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction: Which Starting Pitcher Will Dominate Early?

The New York Yankees are in unchartered territory entering tonight's series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. They have lost back-to-back games for the first time since April 10-11 (the third and fourth games of the season) and are coming off just their second loss of more than three runs after losing the second game of their doubleheader 5-0 to the White Sox. Who was the only other team to beat the Yankees by more than three runs this season? The Orioles, of course.

Baltimore looks to build off the momentum of a home series win over the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that had dominated them at Camden Yards for much of the last couple of seasons. 

The Yankees and Orioles have already played a whopping ten times, the most head-to-head games between any opponents this season. That should give us plenty to analyze for this matchup. However, instead of focusing on a more traditional moneyline or O/U play, we explain an edge we see on a play from the game's first five innings.

Read on for our prediction, best play, and the odds for Monday's series opener between the Orioles and Yankees.

Yankees vs Orioles Start Time and Where to Watch

Date: May 23, 2022

Time: 7:05 pm

Where to Watch: YES Network, MASN, MLB Extra Innings

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New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

New York played three games over the weekend in 90+ degree heat, which forced manager Aaron Boone to get creative with his lineup, especially for Sunday's doubleheader. Prized prospect Estevan Florial played in his second game this year, while catcher Rob Brantly appeared in his first so as to not overwork his regular starters. 

Boone may also have bullpen issues tonight, as all of his key relievers pitched at one point over the weekend, and most threw at least 14 pitches. Further, some of those more important relievers cannot be trusted right now, especially closer Aroldis Chapman (0-2, 3.86). Chapman has allowed at least one earned run in his last five appearances after starting the season with 10.1 consecutive scoreless innings.

With their bullpen taxed, it is perfect timing that New York can send ace Gerrit Cole (4-0, 2.89) to the mound, who will be counted on to eat innings. Cole has been dominant in his career against Baltimore, going 5-1 with a 1.57 ERA in eight career starts. Opposing Cole is Baltimore's Jordan Lyles (2-4, 4.11), who is 1-2 with a 4.21 ERA in five career appearances against the Yankees.

Entering Sunday, the Yankees led the majors in runs scored in the seventh inning or later, while they were tied for 11th in runs scored through the first six innings. Therefore, we expect New York's offense to start slowly while Cole keeps his team in the game by shutting down the Orioles.

The under has cashed in Baltimore's last four games as road underdogs and is 4-0 in New York's previous four home games against teams with a losing record. Both trends should continue today, especially through the first half of the game.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Pick

PICK: Orioles-Yankees First Five Innings UNDER 4 Runs (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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