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The Padres and the Brewers have been two of the better teams in the National League this season but which team will be able to continue their success tonight? Let's break it down.

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Which Team Will Stay Hot to Start this Series?

I lost quite a bit of money going against the Padres betting on the Giants this weekend but that was more of a play on the Giants returning to their norm as opposed to a straight fade of the Padres. Let's look at the Padres vs. Brewers odds and make our predictions and best bet.

Bet $5, Win $200 if the Padres or Brewers Win

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

The Padres have always gotten really solid starting pitching and had a middle-of-the-pack offense but now they are starting to click at the same time as the Padres offense has really come alive over the past few weeks.

In their past series against the Giants, their bats really came alive as they scored a total of 20 runs in that 3-game series and they have been led by MVP candidate and perennial All-Star, Manny Machado. Machado is also a Gold Glove winner at 3B and is always one of the top defenders in the league and this year, his offense is catching up with his defense.

Machado is currently hitting .374 with 8 homers, 27 RBIs, 33 runs scored, 7 stolen bases, and 21 total extra base hits. He has been a machine for them at the plate and I think the Padres as a whole have a good matchup tonight against the Brewers starting pitcher, Adrian Houser. Houser has been solid for Milwaukee over the past few seasons but he is the odd man out of their big 3 of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff.

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Houser comes into this game with a very respectable 3.22 ERA but let's take a deeper look at some of his splits. On the road, he has posted a 1-2 record with a 5.27 ERA in 3 total starts against some very weak opponents. Those 3 road starts came against the Orioles, Phillies, and Reds...3 teams who have been very below average offensively this season.

In his last road start against the Reds, he was extremely shaky as he allowed 6 hits, 4 walks, and 3 total earned runs as he was only able to get through 4 total innings of work. The Reds worked a lot of deep counts in that start and if Houser was facing a more formidable offense than the Reds, he may have given up a lot more than just 3 earned runs. So the question tonight will be can the Padres take advantage of Houser's road struggles? And I believe the answer is Yes.

On the mound for the Padres will be Nick Martinez who comes into this game with 2-2 record and a solid ERA of just 3.89. Unlike Houser, Martinez has faced some very stiff competition in his starts at home as he faced the Dodgers and Braves, but surprisingly enough, his worst start came at home to the Cubs who are probably the worst team he has started against to this point.

Martinez has done a really good job of limiting damage in his starts as he has only allowed 3 or more earned runs in 2 of his 6 starts this season. He also followed up his worst start against the Cubs with arguably his best start of the season against the Phillies as he did not allow a single run and struck out 6 with 0 walks through 4 innings of work in that start. I think Martinez will have some success tonight against a Brewers squad who I believe is due for some negative regression.

I believe the Brewers are due for negative regression simply because of how easy their schedule has been to this point. I know the Brewers do not make the schedule, but they have only played one team who is above .500 on the season and that is the Cardinals in a series they split 2-2.

The Brewers have already played 19 games against the Pirates, Reds, Orioles, and Nationals who are widely considered as the 4 worst teams in Baseball. The Brewers come into this game with an impressive record similar to the Padres but not all records are created equally. With that being said, I am rolling with Padres F5 ML at -115 and Padres Full Game ML at -107 for 1U each as my most confident MLB Picks of the night as I believe the Padres will stay hot and open this series with a home win.

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick

Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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