San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Will the Padres Bats Get Hot at Home?
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Will the Padres Bats Get Hot at Home?
The Brewers and Padres kick off a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego tonight at 9:40 p.m. EST. The Padres enter this series riding a four-game streak, including a three-game sweep over the Giants. The Brewers will hit the road for this series after taking two of three at home against the Nationals.
The Brewers sit atop the NL Central with a 26-15 record, while the Padres are tied for first with a 27-14 record in the NL West with the Dodgers, who are 27-13. Can the Padres start their homestand strong with a win in the series opener? Let's dive into the prediction, best bet, and the odds for the Padres vs Brewers game tonight.
Padres vs Brewers Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: May 23, 2022
Time: 9:40 pm
Where to Watch: BSW, BSSD, MLB Extra Innings
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San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
The Padres have done their best without superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., who is still on the IL for at least a few weeks with a wrist injury. His last update is that he has taken grounders and started light fielding but has yet to start swinging the bat again. The thought of the already 27-14 Padres team getting their best player back should scare the NL West.
This team has made do without him, thanks to big performances from their veterans like Manny Machado. Machado's .374 batting average leads the MLB, and he is coming fresh off a four-hit game against the Giants. Machado had eight hits in the three-game series against the Giants with four RBIs.
Tonight, the Pitching matchup will be Adrian Houser for the Brewers against Nick Martinez for the Padres. Houser is 3-4 on the year with a 3.22 ERA with a 1-2 record on the road with a 5.27 ERA. Martinez is 2-2 on the year with a 3.89 ERA. Nick Martinez has been up and down over the previous eight years and actually played over in Japan the last few years before the Padres brought him over and added him to their rotation this season.
Martinez has good stuff and throws a lot of off-speed pitches that he gets lots of weak hits and chases with. His chase rate is in the 92nd percentile for MLB pitchers, and his barrel percentage is in the 9th percentile. Martinez is great in the 1-3rd inning, but his ERA really sees a rise past that point, so he may not get deep into this game.
Adrian Houser is coming off a great outing against the Braves, where he went six scoreless innings at home. However, in the previous outing, Houser was on the road and gave up three earned runs and seven total with six hits and four walks in four innings of work against the Reds. This has been the theme for Houser, as sometimes he is lights out and on point, then other times he gets blown up.
Many pitchers experience this, but Houser has shown to be consistently worse on the road and has frequently shown command issues. In his three road starts this year, he had three walks in 3.2 innings against the Orioles, one walk in six innings against the Phillies (quality start), then four walks in four innings against the Reds. His BB rate is in the 24th percentile for MLB pitchers, and he has a 1.8 K/BB rate. Houser does have a good pitch arsenal, and at times he comes out looking like a Cy Young candidate, but for as inconsistent as he is, I don't know how he'll fare against a hot Padres lineup as we have seen over the last few games.
The Brewers are 4-9-8 on the first five-inning line on the road, meaning they've only led after five innings in four of their 21 road games. The Padres have a respectable 8-7-2 record at home on the first five-line, but the Padres also play in the toughest division in baseball with the Giants and Dodgers.
We could see a stellar outing from Houser, but I think he will struggle on the road once again against the Padres and their MLB-leading hitter Manny Machado. Martinez should give us a solid four innings before they have to go to the bullpen for the last three outs or so. Give me the Padres and the hot bats to lead after five innings in this series opener.
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet
Pick: Padres First 5 ML @ -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.