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The Marlins and Rays begin a short two-game series in Tampa Bay on Tuesday night. Will injuries to key players produce a low-scoring affair? MLB expert Mike Spector makes his case for the best play on the game's total.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction: Can We Expect A Low-Scoring Affair?

The Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays meet on Tuesday night for the first game of a quick two-game series. The Marlins have had trouble generating winning streaks, as they are just 1-5 in their last six games following a win. As such, Miami has won back-to-back games just once since the calendar turned to May. Conversely, Tampa Bay has excelled at avoiding losing streaks, as it is 4-0 in its last four games after a loss. The Rays have suffered back-to-back losses just once since May 2nd, when it lost three straight road games from May 8-10. 

The Rays have won four straight home meetings against the Marlins and are 15-2 in their last 17 meetings overall. They look for a third consecutive home series win, while the over is 7-2 in the previous nine meetings in Tampa Bay between these teams. So which trend do we find more likely to reverse its course tonight?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and the odds for Tuesday's series opener between the Marlins and Rays.

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Rays vs. Marlins Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSF, BSS, MLB Network, MLB Extra Innings

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Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Arguably the best pitching matchup on Tuesday's MLB slate is in this game, as Miami's Pablo Lopez (4-1, 1.57) opposes Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan (3-2, 2.33). Considering Lopez has never had a sub-3.00 ERA for an entire season and has only ended a season over .500 once (he went 6-4 in the shortened 2020 season), it is fair to wonder how much longer he can keep up this blistering pace. In the meantime, Miami's ace is likely excited to face Tampa Bay, as he is 1-2 with a 3.27 ERA in four career starts against them. In addition, he has allowed just a .188 OBA in 22 innings to Rays' hitters.

McClanahan continues to pile up the strikeouts in his second full big-league season. He has a blistering 12.6 K/9 rate, and his walks per nine are down from 2.7 to 1.9 so far this season. His 2.70 FIP is better than the league average, and his 0.863 WHIP ranks fourth in the majors entering tonight.

The over is 4-0 in Miami's last four games against left-handed starting pitchers and is 6-1 in Tampa Bay's last seven interleague home games against right-handed starters. However, with two of the sport's most underrated pitchers toeing the rubber tonight, throw those trends out the window.

Furthermore, the amount of injuries on each side is concerning for over-backers. Miami's Miguel Rojas (calf) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (hamstring) are questionable, and infielders Joey Wendle (hamstring) and Jon Berti (COVID-19) have already been ruled out. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay could be without Wander Franco (quad) and Yandy Diaz (shoulder) again, as both missed Sunday's series finale against Baltimore. There is a lot of firepower missing in both lineups, making us feel more confident in backing such a low total.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Pick

PICK: Marlins-Rays UNDER 6.5 Runs (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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