Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Can the Marlins Score Some Runs?
Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Can the Marlins Score Some Runs?
This is an ugly slate, after hours of digging I found one bet that has great value. Let's dive into the Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays odds with my predictions and picks.
1u - Marlins Team Total o2.5 Runs (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)
I also like the value of o1.5 First 5 Innings at +135 on DK but we will play it safe here. It is strange because Drew Rasmussen's Earned Runs prop is set at 1.5 and is juiced to -150. He hasn’t surpassed 6 innings all year so these two are 85 cents off of each other so there’s value somewhere. I choose to believe that Marlins have success against him. I will not discredit that Drew has been dominant in his last five games allowing just 3 runs in 26.2 innings pitched but I don’t think that is sustainable.
The Marlins have such interesting splits. Against left handed pitching they are awful batting only .208. Against right handed pitching they bat an incredible .254. Marlins have a sneaky good offense and they have helped pay us in the past. I just find it so interesting that the books think Rasmussen allows 2 runs but the first 5 number is +135. That is a great arbitrage in itself but we will go with trusting these Marlins bats. Miami has scored 3 or more runs in 8 of their last 9 and their only miss was last game, I wouldn't expect two straight misses after 8 straight hits.
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Asking for 3 runs isn’t a lot for a team that averaged 4.1 runs per game and specifically crushes right handed pitching. Tampa will dip into their bullpen for at least 3 innings here and they’ve been good but not great. I just find this number to be too low and personally think that Rasmussen has been overachieving. I could eat my words here but even if that’s the case I know I got an incredibly fair number here at a great price.