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Some people say juice is for losers, I say you only pay juice when you lose. Here's my best bet for Thursday's Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox game.
ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox Best Bet: Drinking the Juice With Dallas Keuchel

White Sox vs. Red Sox Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 26, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: NBC Chicago, NESEN, BSWI

Click Here for White Sox vs Red Sox Odds

Read on for our prediction, best play, and the odds for Thursday's series finale between the Red Sox and White Sox.

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White Sox vs. Red Sox Total Movement

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

0.5u - Dallas Keuchel Under 3.5 Earned Runs (-163) ($81.50 to win $50)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

Although I’m never afraid of the juice this has reached heights that I want to mitigate our risk so we will go for a half unit here. I still want exposure to this though because I see so much value. This number is just so high, Keuchel isn’t an ace like he once was but this feels mean. The lefty has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 4/7 this year and in 20/32 games last season. Allowing 4+ runs means that you were impressively bad which Keuchel is no stranger to but he has demonstrated that he can do this against Boston this season already. 18 days ago Keuchel pitched against this same Boston team and only allowed 2 earned runs over 6 innings pitched.

Keuchel actually has quite a nice history against these Red Sox bats, allowing 11 RBIs in 75 at bats. Assuming he faces 25 batters tonight which is probably overestimating, that would project him to allow 3 runs max. Keuchel has shown that he is better at home and Boston struggles away from Fenway with a 10-13 record. The stars just kind of align here to assume he allows 3 or less, the juice is crazy but warranted. Boston also bats slightly worse against lefties which makes us feel even that much more confident heading into tonight.

The most interesting thing to note here is Keuchel’s daytime and nighttime splits. He is a creature of the night. Keuchel in night games this year has a 1.93 ERA in three starts, in day games he has a 10.69 ERA. As Keuchel gets older he is clearly getting more affected by the sun and plays better as it gets darker outside. I’m 99% joking but still found that stat funny and worth sharing, whenever I see an earned run prop at 3.5 I feel like I have to take it if they’re a legitimate big leaguer. It will win more than it loses and we can win with a cheap injury.

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Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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