New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can the Phillies Gain Momentum Against the Mets?

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction and pick by MLB expert and handicapper Jason Radowitz for Friday night's first game of a three-game set in Citi Field.
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can the Phillies Gain Momentum Against the Mets?

Last night, the Philadelphia Phillies earned a much-needed win over the Braves with Aaron Nola on the bump. With that win, the Phillies will now head to Citi Field to take on the New York Mets with a 21-24 record.

Currently, this season, the Mets have dominated the Phillies in every series. Can the Phillies return the favor, on the road, and start the series off with a win? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Friday's game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

Mets vs. Phillies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 27, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: WPIX, NBCSP

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Mets vs. Phillies Injury Report

Mets

Out: C James McCann (Wrist)

Phillies

Out: SS Didi Gregorius (Knee), OF Mickey Moniak (Hand)

Mets vs. Phillies Line Movement

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies have pushed Zach Eflin back one day and will now start Bailey Falter instead. The left-handed Falter doesn’t have a huge sample size in the last 30 days, however, but in 19 plate appearances, has a 3.61 xFIP with no walks.

This season, Falter is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA while appearing in five games this season. He has a WHIP of 1.25 this season and has a career ERA of 5.12 in 27 games.

The Mets, on the other hand, have an ISO of .161 and wOBA of .287 against lefties in the last 30 days. New York is striking out 24% of the time and earns a walk 7.4% of the time against lefties in that same time frame.

There is some power in the lineup for the Mets. In the last 30 days, the Mets have also hit over 26% of line drives against lefties with the projected lineup. That's good stuff knowing Falter has given up nearly 27% of line drives in the last 30 days.

The Mets will send out Carlos Carrasco to the mound. He’s 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA and has an xFIP of 4.74 in the last 30 days. So far this year, he's been impressive. The deeper he can pitch into a game, the better he gets. He's had multiple games with streaks of nine straight-outs or more.

Carrasco isn't earning high strikeouts but kept the power down, which is something he was unable to do last year.

The Phillies have a .162 ISO and wOBA of .300 in the last 30 days against righties using the projected lineup. Philadelphia’s projected lineup is also striking out 24.9% of the time and walking just 7.3% of the time.

Still, the Phillies limit ground balls and should end up putting the ball in play more frequently against Carrasco than they're normally used to.

At the end of the day, the Mets still have more power and line-drive potential, going up against the Phillies bullpen in the first game of the series. Therefore, I'll grab the Mets on the moneyline here. The Mets got a day off while the Phillies have to travel after playing a hard-fought game last night.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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