Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Will Justin Verlander Dominate the Series Opener?

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Will Justin Verlander Dominate the Series Opener?

The Mariners and Astros will kick off a three-game series from T-Mobile Park in Seattle starting at 9:40 p.m. EST. The Astros swept the last series at home in early May while holding the Mariners to a combined two runs over the entire series. Tonight will also be a repeat pitching matchup from April 16th, when the Astros beat the Mariners 4-0. Will it be different this time around tonight?

Mariners vs. Astros Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: May 27, 2022
• Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Read on for our best play and odds for Friday's series opener between the Astros and Mariners.

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Mariners vs. Astros Line Movement

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction

Justin Verlander is on pace for another Cy Young-esque season. His 1.22 ERA is first in the MLB, and in five starts on the road, he has a .55 ERA. He has two earned runs over four starts in April, including holding opponents scoreless over his last 19 innings. He has also dominated the Mariners in his career and recently. Verlander has two starts against the Mariners this season and has yet to allow a run in the first five innings. Verlander has a 0.38 ERA in innings 1-3 this season and a 1.23 ERA in innings 4-6. Then, his ERA jumps to 4.76 in the 7th innings and beyond. It's safe to say he's locked in at the moment.

Chris Flexen has been less than dominant, especially against the Astros. Flexen has shown continued troubles against the Astros, posting a 0-5 record against the team with a 6.16 career ERA. That is the highest ERA Flexen has against any opponent that he has more than two starts against. Flexen is also one of the least profitable pitchers to back on the first five line with a 1-5-2 record. Flexen is also 0-2 against the Astros on the first five line.

I'm going to keep this sweet and simple. I presented the stats, so I'm assuming you can see where I'm going with this. The Astros are the most profitable team on the first five-run line with a 28-16 record for over 20% ROI. Justin Verlander will probably regress at some point soon and get blown up in a start. Still, it's hard not to recognize Verlander's continued success against the Mariners and the struggles Flexen has had against the Astros. I like this price, and it doesn't have too much juice. Perhaps Verlander gets lit up in his next start, but I don't see it against the Mariners tonight. Back the MLB's most profitable first-half team to get it done again tonight.

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Pick

• Astros First 5 -.5 (-130) (2U) (Bet $130 to Win $100)

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