St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Best Bet: Can We Bank on a Fade of Blake Snell Tonight?

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Best Bet: Can We Bank on a Fade of Blake Snell Tonight?

The Cardinals and Padres kick off game two of the series tonight from Busch Stadium with the first pitch at 7:45 p.m. EST. The Cardinals took game one in a bullpen game, banging up reliever Steven Wilson for the Padres for three runs in .2 innings pitched. Tonight, the Cardinals send out Adam Wainwright to face Blake Snell, who is pitching his third game out since his injury. I have identified a perfect player prop for tonight that has a virtually 0% chance of losing. Let's dive in. Read on for our best play and odds for Tuesday’s National League tilt between the Padres and Cardinals.

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Cardinals vs. Padres Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: May 31, 2022
• Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Cardinals vs. Padres Line Movement

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

Blake Snell is a very lucky man tonight! (Sarcasm.) Blake Snell is facing the Cardinals, who have absolutely obliterated left-handed pitching this season. The Cardinals have a lineup stacked with right-handed bats and only have one true left-handed batter in the current expected lineup in Brendan Donovan. The result of this righty-heavy lineup is an MLB-best .827 OPS versus lefties. The Cardinals are batting .245 against righties and .283 against lefties.

Blake Snell was injured in his first start of the season against the Diamondbacks and didn't pitch again until five weeks later, on May 18th. He made it 3.2 innings against the Phillies in that start and 5.1 innings against the Brewers. In his only two starts back from injury, he struck out 12 batters in 9 innings. His 31% strikeout rate is much above the MLB average, and Snell has always been a strikeout pitcher, which is why his line is 5.5 today, the second-highest on the board. However, the Cardinals are second-lowest in strikeouts/9 in the MLB at 7.27 and have excellent plate discipline as a team. The Cardinals are also first overall in the MLB the last 30 days in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (which goes hand-in-hand with their top OPS versus lefties). The Cardinals also have the highest wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) against left-handed pitching in 2022 at 137 (100 is league average). So yes, while Snell is an excellent strikeout pitcher, this is a bad spot for him to rack up K's today. Snell under 5.5 K's is the 2U max play for me today.

Cardinals vs. Padres Player Prop Pick

• Blake Snell Under 5.5 K's (-125) (2U) (Bet $125 to Win $100)

I am also backing the Cardinals on the first-half line for many of the same reasons I faded Snell on his strikeout line tonight. The Cardinals have been mashing lefties this season, and Snell is still only two starts removed from a bad injury, so it's not out of the question that he's not 100%. Also, Adam Wainwright is no slouch and has a 2.16 ERA in May. The Padres also are 24th in the league with a .643 OPS over the last seven days, so it's hard to see Snell getting much run support tonight. Therefore, I am also playing the Cardinals on the first half line for a unit.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Pick

• Cardinals F5 ML (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)

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