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I love seeing players overachieve because they are prime fade spots down the line. Tonight that's what we have in Tony Gonsolin. Here's my best bet for tonight's first game in the highly anticipated Dodgers and Mets series.
ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Best Bet: Can Tony Gonsolin Maintain His Great Numbers?

Dodgers vs. Mets Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 2, 2022
  • Game Time: 10:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: SNY, SNLA

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Dodgers vs. Mets Line Movement

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Prediction

1u - Tony Gonsolin Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-129) (Bet $129 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

I’ve always loved the bets but I haven’t been seeing as much value lately. That isn’t the case here, I really like this one. The Mets have been a great team in the first 5 innings averaging the 3rd most runs among the MLB. They have averaged 2.98 runs per first 5 innings and Gonsolin has been a little too good this year, this won't last forever. Gonsolin has a stellar 1.8 ERA which will scare some people away but if there was ever a time that he could get shelled, it feels like tonight. The Mets are batting .275 against righties on the year, just ridiculous numbers. Additionally, they take many pitches as a team to help run up pitch counts.

Lindor, Alonso, and Escobar all rank in the top 17 in terms of pitches seen in the NL. Gonsolin has demonstrated that he can actually pitch substantially well and fail at going past the 5th. Gonsolin has hit our prop here in 5/9 games but has shown that he can pitch 5 innings and allow one or fewer runs but still have so much trouble putting people away quick that hit pitch count climbs fast on him. I love that this bet has different ways of hitting for us but I think the most fun way would be a hit parade off of him.

I love when a prop is set at 15.5 or 18.5 for pitching outs for an under because more times than not a pitcher will get taken out between innings. Gonsolin has been almost too good and this is not the team you can afford to not bring your best against. Personally, I think he goes exactly five innings and throws between 85 and 95 pitches. He will struggle to get quick strikeouts and we’ll see plenty of foul balls that will bring us lots of joy. Dodgers just got swept by the Pirates so I think the bats will be mad, we’re just gonna pick on Tony and let the bats do what they want.

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Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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