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The Chicago Cubs take on the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon. Can the pitchers limit the offense today or will the bats get hot? Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can Marcus Stroman Fly Through the Cardinals Lineup?

The Cubs and Cardinals battle for the second game of the series from Wrigley Field in today's lone day game, starting at 2:20 p.m. EST. The Cubs jumped ahead early in game one and didn't look back, eventually winning 7-5. Wilson Contreras opened the scoring with a two-run home run in the bottom of the first inning, and the Cubs never trailed from that point on. However, Harrison Bader gave Cubs fans a quick scare in the ninth when his two-run home run made it a two-run game. Yesterday's game had four home runs, and I predict we may see multiple dingers in the day game today.

Let's dive into my prediction, pick, and the odds for today's Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals game.

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Cubs vs Cardinals Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 3, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:20 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSMW, MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings

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Cubs vs Cardinals Line Movement

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

From a quick glance, Miles Mikolas and Marcus Stroman are two decent pitchers that should be able to hold it down in the first half. Then, you look at the finer details and see we may be in for some runs today. Marcus Stroman has never been a Cy Young pitcher, but he hasn't been bad over his nine-year career.

His WAR has been positive every season, but he's never been considered the ace in the rotation. Stroman is coming off an excellent start where he went seven scoreless innings against the White Sox. However, the White Sox are one of the worst teams against right-handed pitching in the league. He now faces a more difficult task today.

The Cardinals are full of difficult outs, and they strike out at the second-lowest rate in the league. The Cardinals are also the fifth highest-scoring offense in the league, and they only do better in day games. The Cardinals are third in the league with a .259 average in day games. The Cardinals have a .751 OPS in day games compared to a .686 in night games.

The Cardinals also get a lot of hard-hit balls, something Stroman gives up often. Stroman is in the eighth percentile for hard-hit balls in play and the ninth percentile in exit velocity off his pitches. The Cardinals also have five lefty bats in the lineup today (one switch-hitter), and Stroman has struggled against lefty hitters. Lefties are hitting .250 off Stroman, whereas righties are hitting just .187 off him. Basically, the Cardinals could be a difficult matchup for Stroman today.

The Cubs are no stranger to offensive success in day games themselves. In fact, the Cubs hold the highest OPS in day games in the league with a .770 OPS in day games. They are also facing a pitcher who has dominated in night spots but has struggled in day starts. Miles Mikolas has a lower 1.42 ERA in six-night starts but a much higher 4.76 ERA in four-day starts. This was the same case last season for him too.

Mikolas had a 3.19 ERA in night games last season and a 9 ERA in day games. I'm not sure the reasoning behind it; maybe he has a specific ritual every start and can't do it before day games. I'm not sure, but either way, his ERA is higher in day games, and now he faces the team with the highest OPS in day games.

Both teams have trended towards the over in the first half this season. The Cubs are 19-6-2 to the over at home on the first-five line, and the Cardinals are 15-8-1 to the over on the road. Even with a few regulars sitting today with it being a day game after a night game, I like the first half to go over in this spot.

The first half-over hit in the first games of the series yesterday, making the over 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Chicago. Both teams hit much better in day games, and I think the offense will roll once again today. Take the first over to hit in Wrigley Field today. We are also getting the over below -110 on Fanduel to minimize juice.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Picks

Pick: Cubs/Cardinals F5 O4.5 @ -106 (Bet $106 to win $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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