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The Reds and Nationals will fight for game three of a series very much up in the air to win, with both teams taking a win in the series so far. Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Will the Reds Offense Get Off To A Hot Start?

The Reds and Nationals will fight for game three of a series very much up in the air to win, with both teams taking a win in the series so far. Let's get into my prediction, pick, and the odds for the Reds vs Nationals game.

Reds vs. Nationals Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 4, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSO, BSSE, MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings

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Reds vs. Nationals Prediction Line Movement

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

The Nationals are coming off a three-run win yesterday, thanks to Lane Thomas, who hit three home runs for four RBIs. Today, the Reds will attempt to break the split at home behind Tyler Mahle (2-5, 5.53 ERA), while Erick Fedde (3-4, 4.6 ERA) gets the nod for the Nationals.

The Reds had the worst start to their season of any team in the MLB. They went 3-18 in April while batting barely over .200 as a team. However, they have turned the page on what seems like an entirely different team now and have gone a respectable 15-15 since the horrid start in April. Their team batting average has improved significantly to .243 since April as well.

Tyler Mahle is having an uncharacteristic start to his season. His 5.53 ERA is the highest Mahle has ever had in his six-year career. Some of this may be bad luck, though. I think Mahle is due for some progression, and this is something we saw his last time out. Mahle pitched 6.2 excellent scoreless innings against the Giants on May 29th, giving up just one hit. I don't expect him to look like that every outing, but he's better than his early 5.53 ERA. His xBA is .232, whereas the league average is .246. Mahle has also seen the Nats multiple times before and has had success. In Mahle's last two outings against the Nationals, he went six innings with zero runs allowed and 5.1 innings with zero runs allowed the start before that. Mahle has won his last three starts against the Nationals and now has an excellent opportunity at home to continue to get back on track.

Erick Fedde is 3-4 with a 4.6 ERA and was banged up badly in his last outing. In his previous start, Fedde had to take on the surging Mets and was taken for six runs in just 1.1 innings before he got pulled. The start before that, Fedde pitched six scoreless innings against the Dodgers. Quite the difference in starts. That has been Fedde for most of his career, though. He is inconsistent, and you never really know which Fedde you will see until the game starts. However, getting rocked for six runs in barely more than an inning will affect your confidence no matter who you are. Fedde has also seen the Reds before, and they have knocked the bat around a bit against him. In the Red's last time facing Fedde, they scored five runs in 4.2 innings and won. Fedde has a 5.52 career ERA in three starts against the Reds, with nine runs allowed in 14.2 innings.

The Reds have shown a lot more offensive power over the past month and have battled back from a horrible start to their season. We finally saw Mahle progress after a tough start to the season himself. I believe we see another good outing against the Nats from Mahle today and that the Reds will be up after five. The Nats are 3-7 over their last 10 on the first-half line. Take the Reds to hit Fedde around again and to be leading after five innings today.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Pick

Pick: Reds F5 ML @ -135 (Bet $135 to win $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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