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Ben Rajavuori is here to break down the Philadelphia Phillies vs the Los Angeles Angels. Will Michael Lorenzen rack up the strikeouts tonight?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels Best Bet: Can Michael Lorenzen Rack Up The Strikeouts?

The Phillies and Angels continue the three-game set from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia tonight at 7:15 p.m. EST. The Phillies took the first game in dominant fashion, routing the Angels in a 10-0 win in an excellent start from Zach Eflin. Let's dive into my best bet, prediction, and odds for the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Angels game.

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Phillies vs. Angels Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: June 4, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:15 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

Click Here for the Phillies vs Angels Odds

Phillies vs. Angels Total Runs Movement

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction

The Angels have now lost nine games in a row and need a win badly. They will look to Michael Lorenzen to help propel them to a win and finally break the losing streak.

Michael Lorenzen is in his first year with the Angels, and after being a bullpen pitcher for almost his entire career, Joe Maddon has put Lorenzen in the starting rotation. It appears that Lorenzen has done very well so far and has found his stride as ar starting pitcher. He has three-straight quality starts and has a 3.19 ERA with a 5-2 record.

Lorenzen might not appear like a strikeout pitcher at first, but his strikeout rate has actually been above league average in more than half his years in the league. However, so far this year, his strikeout numbers have been down. His 5.8 SO/9 is the lowest it's been in his eight-year career. While this is all true, I like Lorenzen to hit his prop line today.

The fact that Lorenzen's strikeout numbers have been lower this year has brought his line down significantly. The line for Lorenzen is in 3.5 in most places and 4.5 in a few for plus money. But Lorenzen has faced teams with low strikeout rates, and today he has a good matchup against the Phillies.

The Phillies have struck out at a 24.6% rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, which is 25th in the league. They have also been drawing fewer walks. The Phillies are 24th against right-handed pitching the previous 30 days with a 6.9% walk rate.

Lorenzen has also faced the Phillies hitters before and has excellent strikeout numbers against today's lineup. In 40 at-bats against the Phillies lineup, Lorenzen has struck out 14 of them, a 35% strikeout rate.

With that rate, he would only need barely five innings to hit over 4.5. The Phillies also have Mickey Moniak starting in place of Herrera today, and Moniak has only had ten at-bats this year and struck out in five of them, suitable for a 50% strikeout rate.

The Phillies are a strikeout team. They're 24th in the league with 8.87 strikeouts per game in 2022. Lorenzen's line has dropped due to multiple starts with low strikeouts, which presents a perfect opportunity for us to cash in on him tonight. Lorenzen has hit over 4.5 in 3 of 8 starts this season, but against the Phillies, he should cruise to 5+. Take Lorenzen to hit his K prop tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels Best Bet

Pick: Michael Lorenzen O4.5 K's @ +142 (Bet $100 to win $142)

*Odds available at Fanduel at time of publishing*

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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