Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Should You Back the Cardinals and Paul Goldschmidt?

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Should You Back the Cardinals and Paul Goldschmidt?

A five-game series is finally coming to an end tonight between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. These two teams have played four games in three days and will now finish the series with a rubber match on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

Can the Cubs earn a massive divisional series win? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Sunday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

Cubs vs. Cardinals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 5, 2022
• Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Click Here for Cubs vs Cardinals Odds

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Cubs vs. Cardinals Injury Report

Cubs

Out: 2B David Bote (Shoulder), OF Seiya Suzuki (Finger), C Yan Gomes (Oblique) OF Michael Hermosillo (Quadriceps), 3B Jonathan Villar (Mouth)

Cardinals

Questionable: OF Corey Dickerson (Calf)

Out: OF Dylan Carlson (Hamstring), OF Tyler O'Neill (Shoulder)

Cubs vs. Cardinals Line Movement

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Justin Steele will get center stage for tonight's ESPN rubber match. Although he’s 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA on the season, Steele has pitched better recently, with a 3.86 xFIP in the last 30 days. Steele has earned 31.6% of strikeouts in the last 30 days but has struggled to keep walks down. He's also not getting a ton of ground balls and is giving up over 26% of line drives in that same time frame.

To begin the year, the Cardinals were dominant against lefties. However, they've cooled off in the power category against lefties since. The Cardinals only have a .099 ISO and a wOBA of .313 against lefties in the last 30 days with the projected lineup.

Still, St. Louis is still striking out just 14.7% of the time while walking 11.9% of the time in the last 30 days against lefties. If the Cardinals limit strikeouts against Steele, they'll have a solid day at the dish.

Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright will get the call for the Cardinals. In the last 30 days, Wainwright has a 4.99 xFIP in the last 30 days but has allowed a BABIP of just .232 in that same time frame. Wainwright has been very lucky and we can tell this by looking at his 2.75 ERA on the season.

While Wainwright has been lucky, there's still a good chance he comes through again tonight. The Cubs have not been great against righties in the last 30 days with the projected lineup hitting a .139 ISO and wOBA of .283 against righties. Chicago is hitting more ground balls, lacking line drives, and ultimately only walking 8.3% of the time in the last 30 days.

While the Cardinals have struggled to find power against lefties, St. Louis still has the more impactful lineup analytically. The Cardinals will have eight righties in the lineup and should be able to work Steele to get walks and base hits.

Eventually, Steele should break down and the Cardinals will come through. Give me St. Louis on the moneyline for tonight's game.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

• Cardinals (-140) (Bet $140 to Win $100)

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