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I love my law of averages theories but sometimes you need to ride the wave. Here's my best MLB bet for Sunday coming from the Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates game.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Follow This Trend With Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Braves

Braves vs. Pirates Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 12, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:35 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Braves vs. Pirates Line Movement

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

1u - Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-145) (Bet $145 to win $100)

Atlanta is on a 9-game win streak, the Pirates are on a 5-game skid. I’m a huge law of averages guy when it comes to many things but on this one I see both streaks proceeding. The Braves are simply a much better team and have the pitching advantage today. They are a -250 on the moneyline for a reason so we will take the first 5 inning discount and take the bullpens out of the equation. The Braves especially crush left-handed pitching and guess what type of pitcher is on the mound for Pittsburgh today?

That’s right, on the mound for Pittsburgh is Jose Quintana today. It’s no secret that Quintana is a lefty and has a horrible history versus these bats. In 88 plate appearances, he has allowed these batters on base 34 times. That is an on-base percentage of .386. More importantly, for us, he has allowed 14 RBIs in these plate appearances so about 1 RBI every 6 at bats. Assuming he faces 20+ batters through 5 innings I could definitely see him allowing 3-4 runs here.

On the mound for Atlanta is Kyle Wright who has been slightly worse lately but is still rocking an outstanding 2.39 ERA and Pittsburgh is only hitting .222 against righties. He doesn’t have much of a history against them but I think he’s in line for a quality start and I like his chances more than Quintana at having a quality start. All we need Atlanta to do is lead after five innings. I personally don’t care if they choke the game late. Atlanta hits .262 against lefties and has the pitching advantage, give me this bet 10/10 times.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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