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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction and pick by expert Jason Radowitz for Sunday's final game of this 3-game set between these NL Central rivals from Busch Stadium.
ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Will the Reds Keep It Close Behind Graham Ashcraft?

The Cincinnati Reds are just 20-39 on the season and have just dropped two straight games to the St. Louis Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 34-26 on the season and are clearly a World Series contender at this point. However, despite all of that, the Cardinals likely won't have it easy today, at home. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Sunday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.

Cardinals vs. Reds Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 12, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:15 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSMW, BSO

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Cardinals vs. Reds Injury Report

Reds

Questionable: 1B Colin Moran (Head)

Out: OF Jake Fraley (Knee), 2B Jonathan India (Hamstring), 3B Mike Moustakas (Illness), OF Tyler Naquin (Quadriceps), OF Max Schrock (Calf), 2B Donovan Solano (Hamstring), C Tyler Stephenson (Thumb)

Cardinals

Out: OF Corey Dickerson (Calf)

Cardinals vs. Reds Line Movement

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

The Reds will look to escape St. Louis with at least one win in this weekend series against the Cardinals.

Cincinnati will pitch Graham Ashcraft, who has a 4.03 xFIP in the last 30 days. He's thrown in four games this season and has a 3-0 record with a 1.14 ERA. He's been able to do this by earning 61.1% of ground balls while limiting line drives to under 20% in those games.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have a .154 ISO with a wOBA .331 in the last 30 days. But without Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman, the Cardinals wouldn't be close to these numbers.

Goldschmidt is hitting a .372 ISO with a wOBA of .459 against righties in the last 30 days while Gorman has a .250 ISO with a wOBA of .374 in those same 30 days. Outside those two bats, the Cardinals have been quiet and inconsistent offensively against righties using their projected lineup.

Meanwhile, Dakota Hudson will get the call for the Cardinals. He's 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA but has an xFIP of 4.50 in his last 30 days on the mound. In those 30 days, he's struck out just 14.3% of batters while walking 8.9% of batters. Hudson has also allowed 25.6% of line drives in that same time frame and will go up against a Reds lineup that has hit 26% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days.

The Reds have also only struck out 17.4% of the time against righties in the last 30 days, therefore, there's a good chance that the Reds can put the ball in play and hit hard line drives against Hudson.

The Reds have been very inconsistent as of late but this is a matchup where I'm willing to risk it a bit. Take the Reds +1.5 on the run line at -130 and root on the Reds to salvage the weekend series.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick

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Article Author

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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