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I’ve been looking at this game's total and this player prop and I’ve been so confused why both are so inflated. Here is my prediction and pick for the Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres game.
ANALYSIS

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction: Will Sean Manaea Limit the Cubs Lineup?

I’ve been looking at this game's total and this player prop and I’ve been so confused why both are so inflated. Here is my prediction pick, and odds for the Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres game.

Cubs vs Padres Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 14, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSSD, MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings

Click Here for Cubs vs Padres Odds

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Pick

1u - Sean Manaea u3.5 Earned Runs (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction

I know it’s heavily juiced but this bet is too good not to take. Manaea is 9/11 on this prop and his two misses were against the Giants and Dodgers who are both much scarier lineups than the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs only have 54 RBI in 564 at-bats against lefties. That’s an RBI every 11 at bats against a lefty and I would argue that Manaea is an above-average lefty. Manaea will likely go 6-7 innings and face 25 batters at the most which would project him to allow in the mid-twos, maybe two or three runs. Certainly not the four runs that are needed for us to have our hearts crushed here.

Bet $10, Win $200 on any MLB Moneyline

Manaea has a 3.52 ERA on the year and has been especially good in his last two starts he has allowed just two runs in his last 13 innings. The lefty has been due some positive regression and I see that trend continuing. This game total of 10.5 doesn’t make sense to me. I’m a big Kyle Hendricks hater and even I think that number is too high too. Manaea last year has allowed three runs or less in 23/32 games. So in his last 43 games, he is 32/43 on the under for a 74.4% hit rate. I understand this number if it's a great team but it’s the Cubs.

The Cubs have scored one run or less in three of their last four games. Additionally, they are bottom 10 in the MLB in runs per game. The Cubs are strangely a worse home team, they are 11-21 at home on the season. This number is just too high, it should be 2.5, and even at that number, it feels fair for either side. I will very gladly drink the juice here and think a number like this should be north of -200 so I see value. Manaea should not be getting disrespected by the books like this and now let's make them pay for bullying a great man. Allowing 3 runs in six innings isn’t even a good start and that would cash us today, love that! Let's roll folks!

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Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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