Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Can Zac Gallen Dominate Early?

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Can Zac Gallen Dominate Early?

The Cincinnati Reds earned their second road series win of the season after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks in extra innings last night. This series win provides a little more validation than their first one, as they swept the Guardians in a mini two-game series in mid-May. 

Can the Reds complete their first three-game road sweep of the season, or will the Diamondbacks battle back in this afternoon’s series finale? Or does the better value lie with a game prop with two hot pitchers on the mound?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Wednesday’s series finale between the Reds and Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks vs Reds Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 15, 2022
• Time: 3:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: BSA, BSMW, MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings

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Diamondbacks vs Reds Line Movement

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Luis Castillo (2-4, 3.23) is just 1-3 on the road, but not much has been his fault, as he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 23 road innings. That is even more impressive considering three of his four road starts have come against teams that rank in the top ten in the league in scoring (Toronto, Boston, St. Louis). Castillo is a flamethrower who ranks in the 88th percentile in fastball velocity and has not been hit hard much this year, ranking in the 85th percentile in barrel percentage, per Statcast.

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For as good as Castillo has been on the road, Zac Gallen (4-2, 2.95) has been better at home. Gallen is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in six home starts. He has also been nearly unhittable in day games, going 1-1 with a 0.78 ERA and a .173 OBA in four early starts. That bodes well for his chances to limit Cincinnati’s (and former Diamondbacks) red-hot third baseman Brandon Drury. 

Drury has a .842 OPS with 12 home runs and 33 RBI. He has been on a tear in June, amassing a 1.156 OPS with four home runs and seven RBI in 12 games this month. Jonathan India’s return from the IL will be a nice spark for the Cincinnati offense, but we do not expect him to have much of an impact early after going 2-for-12 with four strikeouts in a recent rehab stint.

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Arizona is 8-4 in its last 12 games as a home favorite, while Cincinnati is 10-25 in its previous 35 games as road underdogs. While we would not put anyone off of a Diamondbacks moneyline wager given these trends, the better play is the under for the first five innings. Castillo has averaged a little more than five innings per start, which worries us for backing the full game under, given Cincinnati has the league’s worst bullpen, ranking 5.02 in reliever ERA. The under is 35-16-3 in the last 54 meetings in Arizona between these teams, and we expect each starting pitcher to do their job in keeping runs to a minimum.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Pick

PICK: Reds-Diamondbacks First Five Innings UNDER 4 Runs (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)

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