New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Will Pete Alonso and the Mets Continue Home Dominance?

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Will Pete Alonso and the Mets Continue Home Dominance?

The New York Mets are back home from a long road trip. Last night, the New York Mets held the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless, winning 4-0 in their first game home after a long west-coast road trip.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have struggled immensely as of late and have now fallen to 34-29 on the season with that loss to the Mets.

Will the Brewers get back on track against the best team in the National League? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Wednesday's game between the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets.

Mets vs. Brewers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 15, 2022
• Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FS1

Mets vs. Brewers Injury Report

Mets

Out: C James McCann (Wrist), OF Travis Jankowski (Hand)

Brewers

Out: 2B Mike Brosseau (Ankle), 2B Kolten Wong (Calf)

Mets vs. Brewers Total Movement

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Tonight, the Brewers will send out Corbin Burnes, who is 3-4 with a 2.48 ERA on the season. He's clearly not getting much run support in his starts this season although he's pitched just as well as he did last year.

In the last 30 days, Burnes has had a 3.72 xFIP with 29.4% of strikeouts and 7.6% of walks. When balls are in play against Burnes, he's allowing a high amount of line drives at over 23% and isn't getting a whole lot of grounders.

Against righties, the Mets have a .204 ISO and wOBA of .342 with their projected lineup in the last 30 days. The Mets clearly have the better lineup as they’ve hit 25.5% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days. But only Starling Marte and Pete Alonso match up well against Burnes, as Burnes has allowed a higher ISO number to righties at .204.

The Mets won't send out an ace against Burnes. Instead, it'll be the fifth starter in David Peterson. Peterson is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the season. You'll take that any day from a backend starter. In the last 30 days, analytically,, things haven’t been great. Peterson has a 4.70 xFIP with 13.2% of walks through 76 plate appearances. Still, he’s earning 48.9% of grounders in those 30 days.

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But against lefties, the Brewers have been atrocious. The projected lineup has a .120 ISO and wOBA of .283. That same lineup is hitting 55.8% of ground balls against lefties while only hitting 14.8% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days.

This is using a sample size of 29 plate appearances per player against lefties.

Therefore, I'd expect Peterson to have a fine outing against Milwaukee and believe Burnes will be just fine against the Mets. I'll take the Under 7.5 in this matchup. Unders are never a bad idea when Corbin Burnes is on the mound, specifically because he never gets run support anyway.

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

• Under 7.5 (-105) (Bet $105 to Win $100)

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