New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Should You Back the Mets to Take the Rubber Game?

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Should You Back the Mets to Take the Rubber Game?

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the New York Mets on Wednesday, 10-2, to even the series at one.

Tonight, the Mets and Brewers will play the rubber match of the three-game series. The Brewers have a chance to escape New York with a series win. After two brutal weeks, the Brewers could really use a series win against the Mets.

Meanwhile, with the Atlanta Braves extremely hot, the Mets probably can't afford to lose many games right now or they'll fall out of first place in the NL East standings.

Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Thursday's game between the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets.

Mets vs. Brewers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 16, 2022
• Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: SNY, BSWI

Mets vs. Brewers Injury Report

Mets

Out: C James McCann (Wrist), OF Travis Jankowski (Hand)

Brewers

Out: 2B Mike Brosseau (Ankle), 2B Kolten Wong (Calf)

Mets vs. Brewers Total Movement

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

It's going to be left-hander, Aaron Ashby, on the mound for the Brewers in tonight's rubber match game. Ashby has really adapted in the MLB and currently has a 3.91 ERA to start the season.

In the last 30 days, Ashby has had a 2.65 xFIP with 27.9% of strikeouts and 5.8% of walks allowed. He’s also induced 65.2% of grounders while only giving up 17.4% of line drives in those 30 days.

The Mets don't have much power against lefties. However, they've been getting on base at a solid rate and could create havoc by working walks and earning base hits. The Mets have a .137 ISO with a wOBA of .345 against lefties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup. New York has also hit line drives against lefties nearly 25% of the time with their projected lineup and continue to limit strikeouts at a very good rate of under 15.5% in the last 30 days.

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Meanwhile, it'll be Tylor Megill on the mound for the Mets. He's pitching in his second game since returning from injury. In his return start, Megill finished with 25% of strikeouts and 54.5% of ground balls. He was effective through 16 plate appearances but had a BABIP of .400, which was a bit unlucky.

On the year, Megill is 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA. He hasn't been ridiculous, but he's giving the Mets a chance to win every time he's out on the mound.

That should also be the case tonight. The Brewers have a .138 ISO with a wOBA of just .273 against righties in the last 30 days. Only Omar Narvaez has an elevated wOBA number against righties in those 30 days. Every other batter has a .312 wOBA or worse in the last 30 days against righties. The Brewers are also hitting just 17.7% of line drives in that time frame using their projected lineup.

Ashby has been the better pitcher recently, but that's also because Megill has been injured and out. The Mets can at least work walks against Ashby, who, at times, will walk a lot of batters.

The Mets have more potential to string together hits and walks in an inning. The Brewers have a couple of guys who have solid power numbers but without power, will struggle.

Therefore, I'll ride with the Mets on the moneyline for tonight's game. New York is going to win another home series.

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

• Mets (-135) (Bet $135 to Win $100)

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