Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can Patrick Corbin Limit The Phillies Lineup?

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can Patrick Corbin Limit The Phillies Lineup?

The Phillies are in town to take on the Nationals in a four-game series from Nationals Park in the nation's capital. The Phillies are coming off a series win over the Marlins after taking two of the three games, while the Nationals are trying to erase the memory of being swept at home to the Braves the last three days. Patrick Corbin will take the mound for the Nationals today, and I have a prop play I love for Patrick.

Nationals vs. Phillies Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 16, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MASN, NBCSP, MLB.TV

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Nationals vs. Phillies Line Movement

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Patrick Corbin has been having a tough season. Corbin is 3-8 with a 6.65 ERA, and the Nationals are 3-10 in games started by Corbin this season. Corbin is currently the weakest link in the rotation, and the Phillies are -210 favorites as a result. However, instead of backing a side in this matchup, Corbin's strikeout prop intrigued me. His line is set at 4.5 today, and I love the over.

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Corbin works heavily behind his sinker and slider, two pitches with lots of movement. He throws one of the two over 60% of the time, and they are his best strikeout pitches. He uses his four-seam fastball early in counts to set up his off-speed pitches. His strikeout percentage has been lower this year, but that gives us a nice spot to back the over with a lower line. Many people might be scared to back a pitcher struggling like Corbin, but ERA has little to nothing to do with strikeouts, and he has historically had swing-and-miss success against the Phillies, even if he gives up a ton of runs.

Patrick Corbin has 117 plate appearances against the expected lineup for the Phillies today, and in those 117, he has 35 strikeouts. That's a 30% strikeout rate, meaning he would need to go about 5.1 innings to cash this prop based on his average against the Phillies historically. Corbin has made it six innings in both of his last two starts and hit over 4.5 strikeouts in one of them.

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Corbin is a good matchup against the Phillies since the Phillies strike out at the eighth-highest rate against left-handed pitching in the league. Corbin had three starts against the Phillies at home last season and had nine, eight, and four strikeouts in those respective starts. This is Corbin's first start of the season against the Phillies, and I like him to hit his strikeout prop tonight, even if the Phillies put up five runs on him and win the game easily.

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Play: Patrick Corbin O4.5 K's (-112) (Bet $112 to win $100)

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