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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is back with his top MLB player prop bet for Friday night. This time his pick comes from the Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks game with his sights set on Twins starting pitcher Devin Smeltzer.
ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction: Should We Drink the Juice With Devin Smeltzer?

Today is about giving people a chance. We've lost a lot of guys to bet on with the NBA shutting its doors for the summer so we need new ones. It's simple math. So when I looked at today's board, I thought "who can we bet today that we haven't bet yet this season?" The Circle of Trust has grown to an outrageous size (I have to abbreviate first names because Twitter doesn't allow enough characters) but there's always room for more. The bigger the Circle of Trust, the better. Lucky for us, I saw a guy that I've had my eye on for a few months now. I've just been waiting to get him at a good number, in a good spot, and at a fair price. Guess what, we've got all of that tonight. This could end up being the sneakiest play of the century. I feel like a snake right now.

Diamondbacks vs. Twins Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Diamondbacks vs. Twins Line Movement

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

Devin Smeltzer Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-155) (Bet $155 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings*

I know this is juicy as hell but whatever. I also like 5+ (+158) at FanDuel so if plus money signs are what you're after, you can always go there. What's crazy about this one is his "regular" at FanDuel is 3.5 (-154). You don't see that much. I wouldn't have even known it had I not looked before I bet. Checking all the books is pretty much like looking both ways before you cross the street. It just needs to be done.

I'll warn you now, this guy is not a strikeout guy. He never really has been, although he did fan seven in his first-ever start against the Milwaukee Brewers in 2019. So far this season, he's only fanned 16 guys in 34 innings of work. Let's just be honest, that's not great. But we're not looking for greatness here people. We're looking for a guy that can strike out at least three Arizona Diamondbacks.

The thing about Smeltzer is he's been pitching against teams that don't really strike out much. Of course, a non-strikeout guy isn't going to flash against those teams. It doesn't mean that he's terrible. Just because you can't beat up Israel Adesanya, doesn't mean you can't fight. All six of his starts this season have been against teams in the top seven in MLB in strikeouts versus lefties (Tigers, Guardians, Royals, Blue Jays, Rays). He's still gone over three strikeouts in three of those games.

He's not facing a great lineup tonight in the Arizona Diamondbacks. So far this season, they've struck out 11th most in MLB against southpaws. We're talking 26.5% here people. That's pretty bad. If we see Jake Hager, Pavin Smith, Jordan Luplow, and or Jake McCarthy in the lineup, we've got a real chance to get this the first time through the order. Those guys are all 28+% strikeout guys against left-handers this season. This has to be the sneakiest play on the board tonight.

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Article Author

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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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