Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can Rafael Devers and the Red Sox Get Hot Early?

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can Rafael Devers and the Red Sox Get Hot Early?

The St. Louis Cardinals fell to the Boston Red Sox, 6-5 after scoring four runs in the ninth inning. It just wasn't enough.

Still, the Cardinals are 37-29 on the season and are no pushover.

On the other hand, the Red Sox are 35-30 on the season but have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently. The bullpen is just bringing them down right now and making everything harder than it should be.

Can Boston sneak by St. Louis for the second straight game? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox vs. Cardinals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 18, 2022
• Game Time: 7:15 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FOX

Click Here for Cardinals vs Red Sox Odds

Red Sox vs. Cardinals Injury Report

Cardinals

 Out: C Yadier Molina (Knee), OF Corey Dickerson (Calf)

Red Sox

Questionable: OF Rob Refsnyder (Undisclosed) Out: OF Enrique Hernandez (Hip)

Red Sox vs. Cardinals Line Movement

Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Tonight, Kutter Crawford will get prime-time action with the Red Sox taking on the Cardinals, at home, on FOX. Crawford is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA on the season.

And that's on par with his numbers throughout the year, as Crawford has an xFIP of 5.66 with 16% of walks. However, he’s really only struggled against lefties this year.

Against lefties, Crawford has allowed a .363 wOBA and ISO of .233. Versus righties, he’s held teams to a .306 wOBA and ISO of .030. That's good enough.

The good news here is that the Cardinals will only have four lefties in the lineup against Crawford. Brendan Donovan has a .384 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days for the Cardinals but ultimately, the four lefties in the lineup don’t have all that much power against righties.

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The Cardinals lineup has a .160 ISO and wOBA of .339 in the last 30 days. But if you remove Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals’ numbers would look pretty unappealing. 

On the other hand, Dakota Hudson will man the mound for the Cardinals. He has a 4.83 xFIP in the last 30 days with 13.4% of strikeouts and 8.4% of walks. He’s earned 55.4% of ground balls but has also allowed close to 22% of line drives in the last 30 days.

Hudson has limited wOBA and ISO against both sides of the plate but will have a challenge against this Red Sox lineup. His ERA s 3.29 is likely unsustainable if he's going to have an xFIP nearing five.

The Red Sox have averaged a .351 wOBA in the last 30 days against righties. Boston has also hit 24.1% of line drives in the last 30 days against righties with their projected lineup and should be able to put the ball in play against Hudson in this game.

Rafael Devers has a .342 ISO and wOBA of .472 against righties in his last 86 plate appearances. He’s really the biggest bat in the lineup for the Red Sox but they’ve also got six other batters hitting a .328 wOBA or higher against righties in those last 30 days.

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Therefore, I'm going to rock with the Red Sox in the first five innings. I'm not taking any chances with the bullpen but really like the matchup for the Red Sox going up against Dakota Hudson.

Let's take the Red Sox at -120 in the first five innings tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

• Red Sox F5 Moneyline (-120) (Bet $120 to Win $100)

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