Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will Josiah Gray Struggle Against the Phillies?
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will Josiah Gray Struggle Against the Phillies?
We’re diving back into a market we explored a lot to start the season, time to return to an old friend. Here is my pick, prediction, and odds for the Nationals vs Phillies game this afternoon.
Nationals vs. Phillies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: June 18, 2022
- Game Time: 4:35 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MASN, NBCSP, MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings
Click Here for Nationals vs Phillies Odds
Nationals vs. Phillies Line Movement
Washington Nationals vs. Philadephia Phillies Pick
1u - Josiah Gray o4.5 Hits Allowed (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Josiah Gray has had a decent season, he has a 4.33 ERA and has actually looked pretty solid in his last three outings. With that being said, this number is simply too low given the matchup. The Phillies are scorching hot winning 14/16 games in June. In the month of June, they have averaged 6.43 runs per game. Josiah Gray has looked better as of recent but has still allowed 5+ hits in five of his last seven starts and he hasn’t played a team swinging that hot of a bat.
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The Phillies on the season bat .250 against righties so in theory, it would only take 20 at-bats to make him allow his fifth hit. Gray has allowed eight hits in 19 at-bats against him by these batters. Although the sample size is small it’s a good sign that these batters should be able to get a hit five times while he’s out there. The number is just too low, I had this opening at 5.5 which I thought would have been a 50/50 call. Gray also has strangely struggled much worse at home this year than on the road so that’s another trend favoring us today.
Washington has lost seven straight home games and I don’t believe that Gray will be the guy to stop the bleeding. Even if he somehow is, this prop is set so low he could allow five hits and two runs and work his way towards recording a win. I know the hits-allowed market isn’t available for everyone so I’ll give my favorite pivot as I did yesterday.
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I think the Phillies' o2.5 Team Total for the first 5 innings also has value. Gray is no stranger to walking batters as he’s walked 11 batters in his last four games. There’s a world where the main bet loses because he’s just relentlessly walking people, the number is too good though, and is worth taking for a unit on an otherwise ugly slate.
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