Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can the Brewers Get the Better of Jack Flaherty?
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can the Brewers Get the Better of Jack Flaherty?
The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers were as even as can be entering last night's series opener. They had split their first eight head-to-head meetings and were deadlocked atop the NL Central standings with identical 38-30 records.
Milwaukee took a 5-4 season series lead with last night's 2-0 shutout win in the opener. Will the Brewers continue to expand its lead in the division, or will the Cardinals pull even again with a victory tonight?
Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Tuesday's NL Central tilt between the Cardinals and Brewers.
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Brewers vs. Cardinals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: June 21, 2022
- Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FS1, BSW, BSMW, MLB Extra Innings
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Brewers vs. Cardinals Line Movement
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
Milwaukee continued the momentum from its recent nine-game road trip in which they went 5-4. They have righted the ship with a 6-2 record in their last eight games, which followed an eight-game losing streak. At one point last week, St. Louis was 2.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the standings but has come back to the pack after losing four of its previous five.
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St. Louis made a curious decision to throw four right-handed starting pitchers in this series (Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson will follow Jack Flaherty's start) against the Brewers, as Milwaukee improved to 28-17 vs. righties but 11-13 against left-handers after beating Miles Mikolas. Milwaukee is now 23-11 against Central Division rivals but 16-19 outside the division.
Despite Milwaukee's dominance against the division and penchant for beating right-handed pitching, oddsmakers still made the Cardinals big -150 moneyline favorites, figuring they would enjoy a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup. However, Jack Flaherty (0-0, 6.00) has a ways to go before he is in midseason form, as he was limited to just three innings and 60 pitches in his first start against Pittsburgh.
Flaherty will be stretched out a little more tonight, but he is just two starts removed from an IL stint that shelved him for the whole season, and we do not expect more than four innings out of him. He is opposed by Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-0, 7.71), who makes his Brewers debut after coming over from Minnesota.
The move was made out of necessity as Milwaukee's starting rotation is in shambles with Aaron Ashby, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff all on the IL. Gonzalez allowed six earned runs in seven total innings for the Twins, so the Brewers are realistically asking Gonzalez to keep them in the game through four innings tonight.
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Milwaukee has the edge in the bullpen, as its bullpen ERA is 3.52 (ranks ninth) compared to St. Louis' 3.88 ERA from its relievers (ranks 14th). In addition, Milwaukee's relievers' WAR ranks seventh compared to St. Louis' 21st ranking, and their 3.72 FIP is ninth compared to the Cardinals' 4.14 (21st). As a result, the Brewers make for enticing home underdogs as long as Gonzalez avoids a blow-up early.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML (+130) (Bet $100 to win $130)
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