Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction: Will Carlos Rodon or Charlie Morton Have the Upper Hand?
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction: Will Carlos Rodon or Charlie Morton Have the Upper Hand?
The first two games of this four-game series between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves could not have been more different. On Monday, the Braves won a 2-1 pitcher's duel, as Logan Webb and Max Fried traded punches and gave their teams great outings. Last night, the Giants won a 12-10 slugfest that featured 26 hits and three combined home runs.
What kind of game should we expect in tonight's pitching matchup between Carlos Rodon (6-4, 2.84) and Charlie Morton (4-3, 5.08)? Read on for our best play and odds for Wednesday's National League tilt between the Giants and Braves.
Braves vs. Giants Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: June 22, 2022
- Game Time: 7:20 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
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Braves vs. Giants Line Movement
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction
Atlanta's loss last night was just its third in the previous 19 games, while San Francisco stopped a mini two-game losing streak that came after a 7-1 stretch. The Giants may be on the verge of a breakout with the return of Anthony DeSclafani (though he did not pitch well last night) and Alex Cobb from injury, as it means they have their top five starting pitchers all back and healthy in the rotation.
Atlanta's loss also was its first in the last nine home games, and its eight-game home winning streak was its longest since winning 13 consecutive home games in 2019. Despite losing last night, the Braves hit four home runs and added to their power show. That brings their total to 23 over the nine-home game stretch, and they have outscored opponents 56-30 while going 8-1. Atlanta now leads the National League with 105 home runs.
The good news for San Francisco is that Carlos Rodon has allowed just four home runs in 73 innings this year, and his 0.5 HR/9 rate is on pace to be by far the lowest of his career. We look for him to have a similar outing as Webb, who went into Monday's start not allowing a home run in 20 career innings against Atlanta and keeping them at bay for seven solid innings.
It also helps that this is the first time Rodon has faced the Braves, while Morton is 4-5 with a 2.55 ERA in 14 career starts against the Giants. Current Braves hitters are a combined 2-for-9 against Rodon, while current Giants are 11-for-44 against Morton. Thus, San Francisco should have the edge early as they are more familiar with Morton's arsenal. In addition, Morton’s 28.1% line drive rate and 37.3% ground ball rate are both on pace to be the lowest of his 15-year career.
San Francisco could easily be entering this game having won two straight against Atlanta if not for going 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position in the opener. However, coming off of an explosive offensive performance, we do not expect similar struggles from Giants hitters, especially against Morton, who has underperformed this year.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Pick
- Giants ML (+105) (Bet $100 to Win $105)
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