Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Prediction: Smash This Expert's (+305) Same-Game Parlay With Jose Altuve

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Prediction: Smash This Expert's (+305) Same-Game Parlay With Jose Altuve

After a day of suffering without day-time professional baseball, the MLB has blessed us with four games to satisfy the degenerate bettors like myself and a lot of you (It's okay to admit it. We don't judge here). One game that has caught my eye on the early slate is game two of the series between the Astros and Mets. The Astros took game one behind a strong performance by Jose Urquidy, blanking the Mets over the first five innings en route to an 8-2 win.

Today's bet is a little out of the ordinary for me. It's been a while since I've done a same game parlay, but I've keyed in on a few angles I love on the Astros/Mets game to build this +305 parlay. Let's get right into it.

Astros vs. Mets Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 22, 2022
• Game Time: 2:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Astros vs. Mets Odds

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Astros vs. Mets Line Movement

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Prediction

Leg 1: Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 K's (+100)

Now I'll admit, off the bat, this is a scary parlay piece but hang with me. 35-year-old Carlos Carrasco is having a bounce-back season after his 1-5, 6.04 2021 season, and three of his four starts in June have been impressive. However, the matchup doesn't favor him today. Astros hitters have a combined 98 plate appearances versus Carrasco; in those 98, they have averaged a 22.4% strikeout rate. Given this percentage, the Astros have struck out about one out of every five batters faced, meaning Carrasco would need to hit 25 batters faced to hit five strikeouts, based on his average. Carrasco's average batters faced is 24 per start this year. The Astros are also stingy hitters in the box. The Astros strike out at the second-lowest rate in the MLB in 2022, with only 7.3 strikeouts per game. They have only averaged six per game over their last three. Given that Carrasco isn't usually a strikeout pitcher, to begin with (averages one strikeout per inning, 50th percentile amongst MLB pitchers), I expect him to find less success with punchouts against one of the most patient teams in the box.

Leg 2: Jose Altuve to Record a Hit (-195)

Jose Altuve has the most plate appearances against Carlos Carrasco among the Astros lineup with 26 total, and he also is the most successful against Cassarsco to date. Altuve has 10 hits in 26 appearances against Carrasco for a .385 average. He is almost most likely hitting leadoff as always, meaning he will get at least two at-bats off Carrasco and probably three, depending on how Carrasco is doing. Carrasco also has given up a .333 average to leadoff hitters in 2022, meaning Altuve has about a one-in-three shot for a knock right off the bat. He also has the potential to get a hit off the bullpen. Either way, Altuve is a great hitter hitting leadoff against a pitcher he has had success against. Good -195 addition to the parlay.

Leg 3: Astros ML (-140)

This somewhat goes hand-in-hand with my Carrasco prop. It's been a while since the Astros have played the Mets, with the last series being in 2017, but the Astros are 7-0 in their previous seven against the Mets at home. The Astros have scored 8+ runs in three of their last five games, and I like the hot bats against Carrasco, who has struggled on the road. To be honest, this is probably the scariest leg of the parlay considering the Mets have such a good offense, and they are hard to fade, but I like the Astros to make it eight wins in a row at home against the Mets.

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Pick

3-Leg Same Game Parlay (+305): (Bet $100 to win $305)

• Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 K's (+100)
• Jose Altuve to Record a Hit (-195)
• Astros ML (-140)

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