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Betting against one of the hottest teams in baseball is tough but all the data backs this up. Josh Gayle explains why he's fading Cleveland.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction: Fade the Hottest Team in Baseball?

Guardians vs. Twins Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: Thursday, June 23
  • Game Time: 1:10 PM ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB TV

Click here for Guardians vs. Twins odds

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1u - Twins First 5 Innings Moneyline (-135) (Bet $135 to win $100)

This game is starting very soon so we’ll keep this article nice and short for the people today. The game begins at 1:10 PM. Cleveland is heading into this game winning 17 or their last 21 games and have won 7 straight series, betting against them sounds absurd, right? Well, I like to live life on the edge and whenever I see a team overperforming or underperforming I like to think my “law of averages” approach is beneficial more times than not.

So why do I like the Twins in the First 5? Well first off, this is much like yesterday's bet in that a tie is a push which we like but we want them to lead by one or more after 5 innings to get completely paid out. Simply put, the Twins absolute wreck right handed pitching. In the month of June they have arguably been the best team against righties and Cleveland is putting Zach Plesac on the mound. Plesac is worse on the road with a 5.57 ERA and this Minnesota lineup is 10-35 against him lifetime which is good for a .285 average. Cleveland significantly hits righties better than lefties and Minnesota is putting a lefty on the mound in Devin Smeltzer who has already dominated this lineup this year allowing just 1 run through 5 innings.

Minnesota hits righties well, Cleveland hits lefties worse and Plesac is on the road where he struggles against players that do well against him. The writing on the wall says that this is where Cleveland gets a bump in the road and falls to a still impressive 17-5 in their last 22. Cleveland likes to have heroic comeback wins and their offense turns up as the game progresses so I think the first 5 is the way to attack this and not worry about any bullpen drama. A tie is a push but let's lead by 1 or more and tweet out the green checkmark. Let's roll!

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Article Author

ROI 36.8%

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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