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The Phillies and Padres open a four-game series in San Diego tonight, and MLB expert Mike Spector weighs in with his best play on the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Prediction: Should You Fade Ranger Suarez?

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres are two teams heading in opposite directions over the last couple of days. Philadelphia has lost three straight, including a mini two-game road sweep against Texas. It is its first losing streak since the calendar turned to June and comes after the team started 14-2 under interim manager Rob Thomson. Meanwhile, San Diego is coming off a three-game road sweep of Arizona.

This is the second and final series of the season between these two teams, as they previously met for three games at Citizens Bank Park from May 17-19. All three games resulted in shutouts, as San Diego took two out of three on the road. However, should we expect things to be different if neither of today's starting pitchers, Ranger Suarez or Joe Musgrove, pitched in that first series?

Read on for our best play for Thursday's series opener between the Phillies and Padres.

Phillies vs. Padres Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 23, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Line Movement

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Odds and Prediction

San Diego's offense got off to a poor start in the absence of slugger Manny Machado, who has not played since injuring his ankle on Sunday. The Padres had amassed just seven runs on ten hits over the first 20 innings without their third baseman but exploded for ten runs on 16 hits in their series finale against the Diamondbacks.

They now face Philadelphia's Ranger Suarez (5-4, 4.43), who has been the team's most vulnerable pitcher all season. Suarez has a 1.508 WHIP and has allowed a .270 OBA while not showing great command of the strike zone either. He has 29 walks in 65 innings, and his less than 2:1 K:BB ratio over his last seven starts is a big reason he has pitched to a 5.05 ERA in that span.

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While Suarez has been Philadelphia's most vulnerable pitcher, Joe Musgrove (8-0, 1.59) has been San Diego's best and arguably the best in the entire league. Musgrove has made quality starts in all 12 appearances this season (a franchise record to start the season), and the team is a blistering 11-1 in those starts. However, he is perhaps vulnerable tonight as he was just cleared from the COVID-19 protocol, which brings into question his stamina for tonight's outing.

The Phillies were shut out in their series opener against Texas, but their lineup has since been bolstered with the return of their best hitter. Bryce Harper had missed games through the weekend with a blister on his left hand. Harper has at least one hit in 20 of his last 21 road games and has reached base safely in all in that span. However, no one has reached base safely more often than Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber of late, as he extended his on-base streak to 26 games with a third-inning home run, the longest active string in the major leagues.

None of these teams' three previous head-to-head matchups totaled more than three runs. Still, we expect a higher-scoring game with a struggling Suarez and a bolstered Phillies lineup facing Musgrove off a long layoff given his recent illness.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Pick

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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