San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can MacKenzie Gore go toe-to-toe with Aaron Nola?

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can MacKenzie Gore go toe-to-toe with Aaron Nola?

The San Diego Padres are having a great start to the 2022 season with a 44-28 record. Tonight, they'll start a new series against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are just three games over .500.

San Diego will have a tough matchup going up against Philadelphia's ace. But with rookie pitcher MacKenzie Gore on the mound, the Padres might be able to stick around in this one.

Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Friday's game between the Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres.

Padres vs. Phillies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 24, 2022
• Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: NBCSP, BSSD

Padres vs. Phillies Injury Report

Padres

Questionable: 3B Manny Machado (Ankle), Luke Voit (Hamstring)

Out: OF Wil Myers (Knee), SS Fernando Tatis (Wrist), 1B Matt Beaty (Shoulder)

Phillies

Out: 2B Jean Segura (Finger), SS Nick Maton (Shoulder)

Padres vs. Phillies Line Movement

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Padres will send out prized rookie pitcher, MacKenzie Gore, who has a 4-3 record with a 3.64 ERA.

Gore has run into some trouble this season at times, but overall, has been terrific with high strikeouts on the season.

In the last 30 days, Gore has racked up 25.6% of strikeouts but has also allowed 14.4% of walks while putting together an xFIP of 5.37.

Gore's going to have to work on his command a bit more but he has been able to keep the power down from the left side as of late. Against righties, he's allowed a wOBA of .356 with an ISO of .196 in his last 64 plate appearances against righties. Lefties don't have power but still have a wOBA of .345 against Gore.

In the Phillies lineup, there are three platers hitting lefties at a consistent rate. Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and Bryce Harper. Schwarber and Harper are both lefties that likely won't be able to hit for power against Gore. If Gore can escape the two big lefties in the lineup, there's reason to believe that he can have success.

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Meanwhile, Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Phillies with a 4-4 record along with a 3.11 ERA. In the last 30 days, Nola has had a 3.67 xFIP with 25.4% of strikeouts and .7% of walks. Nola has kept hitters' ISO down to .082 and has really kept weighted on-base averages down against both sides of the plate recently.

The Padres don't expect to have Manny Machado back just yet and will have a lineup that is just dreadful from the five-spot to the nine-hole. Like the Phillies, the Padres have three players hitting consistently at the top of the order against righties but after that, the lineup just goes silent. Therefore, I'll take my chances with the Under 7 in this one. Both teams will need eight to beat me. The Phillies probably have the advantage in this game with Nola on the mound. Even if the Phillies end up scoring four runs, Nola and the Phillies should be able to hold the Padres off to get us this under.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

• Under 7 (-105)  (Bet $105 to Win $100)

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