Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Can Alek Manoah Bounce Back On The Road?
Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Can Alek Manoah Bounce Back On The Road?
Blue Jays vs. Brewers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: June 24, 2022
- Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLBTV
Blue Jays vs. Brewers Line Movement
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1u - Alek Manoah u2.5 Earned Runs (-150 @ DK) (Bet $150 to win $100)
This is juice worth drinking. Manoah has been so great this year, the man holds a 2.00 ERA over 14 starts and is in a fine position to bounce back today. I don’t think he ends the year with this elite of an ERA but today feels like a step in the right direction and then at some point against a scarier lineup the regression will kick in. The Brewers rank in the middle of the league in terms of runs scored and their stats against righties, it's just an average lineup against an above average pitcher in Manoah. The first 5 innings for Milwaukee is set at 1.5 and Manoah should only go one additional inning in my opinion so I see value trading an inning extra of sweating for an additional run we can afford being allowed.
Manoah has pitched 13 games and has 2 earned runs or fewer in 11/13. The two misses were against the Yankees and White Sox who both scare me much more than this Brewers team. I think there’s a very real chance he could allow 2 exactly and we sweat this one hard but I can’t deny the value here even with the juice. Props with a hit rate of 84% don’t just get handed out every day. On the road, Manoah has actually been better this year sporting a 1.80 ERA over 6 starts. The man is pitching on another level and we could cash this in numerous ways.
My favorite part of these props is that they’re earned runs, we’ve won unders on these where we take u2.5 and by the time they leave the other team has 3 runs but we win our best due to unearned runs because of defensive errors. This is just one of those bets you have to take because of the hit rate and mediocrity of the opposition, regression is due eventually but let's hope it's not tonight. Milwaukee has scored 4 or more runs in 7/9 games so I could argue they’re due a stinker too. My law of averages theory I preach in so many articles needs to be looked at from every angle. I'm trusting the 24-year-old righty to bounce back and pitch a nice game tonight.