Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Will Adrian Houser vs. Alek Manoah be a Pitchers Duel?

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Will Adrian Houser vs. Alek Manoah be a Pitchers Duel?

The Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers will meet for the first time since 2017 in a rare interleague tilt. It is one of five games on Friday's slate between teams with winning records and one of three where both teams are in first or second place in their respective divisions.

Milwaukee is barely clinging to a share of first place in the National League Central, as it has won just one of its last eight series outright. However, something has to give this weekend, as Toronto has not won any of its previous three series.

Instead of laboring about who is the right side in this series opener, we see some value in the projected run total that will buck recent trends.

Read on for our best play for Friday's series opener between the Blue Jays and Brewers.

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Blue Jays vs. Brewers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 24, 2022
• Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLBTV

Blue Jays vs. Brewers Line Movement

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Milwaukee earned a split of its four-game series against St. Louis by scoring six runs in the series finale, a number they exceeded just twice in the previous 20 games. However, the Brewers struggled offensively for much of the series' first three games, especially in clutch situations, as they went just 1-for-20 with runners in scoring position. Milwaukee especially struggled against St. Louis' bullpen, as Cardinals relievers combined for 10.1 innings of one-hit baseball in the middle two innings of the series.

The Brewers have struggled offensively for most of June, and in an earlier stretch where they won one of 11 games, they scored just 35 total runs and were shut out three times.

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Things do not get much easier against Toronto's Alek Manoah (8-2, 2.00), who will look to rebound from the first home loss of his career when he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-2 loss Saturday to the Yankees. However, the Brewers do not have the slew of sluggers that the Yankees do. Milwaukee has just a 97 wRC+ and nobody with at least 100 at-bats with an OPS of .800. Manoah has an excellent 18.2% K:BB ratio and a 72 FIP-. 

Manoah is opposed by Milwaukee's Adrian Houser, who is 4-7 with a 4.24 ERA this season. However, his home splits have been much better than his road splits. Houser is 2-3 with a 2.94 ERA in six home starts as opposed to 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA in seven road starts. In addition, his OBA is .225 at home compared to .285 on the road, and his WHIP is 0.35 lower. Houser will have to deal with Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk, who has homered in back-to-back games and leads all qualified catchers in batting average (.307) and OPS (.857).

Nine of the Blue Jays' last ten games have gone over the projected total, and the over is 13-3 in Toronto's last 16 games following a win. However, we prefer to side with the under that is 10-2-4 in Milwaukee's last 16 interleague games and has not lost in Milwaukee's last five interleague home games. Milwaukee's offense cannot be trusted to score runs in this matchup, especially against Toronto's often leaky bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

• PICK: Blue Jays-Brewers UNDER 8.5 Runs (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)