Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction: Ride the Under With Logan Gilbert on the Mound

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction: Ride the Under With Logan Gilbert on the Mound

As the Houston Astros have run away with the division before the calendar has turned to July, the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners seem relegated to chase down one of the three wild card spots this year. The Angels and Mariners start today 5.5 and 6.0 games back, respectively, of the sixth and final playoff spot in the American League. 

Though both teams are at least five games under .500, they each send starting pitchers to the mound with winning records and ERAs at 2.70 or better. Will that lead to a low-scoring game between these division rivals?

Read on for our best play for Saturday's AL West tilt between the Mariners and Angels.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction

The Mariners won yesterday's series opener 4-3 and now look to even the head-to-head season series with the Angels at three games apiece tonight.

Seattle may have just the right man on the mound to help even that season series, as Logan Gilbert enters with a 7-3 record and 2.28. While all other Mariners starting pitchers have allowed at least 1.35 home runs per nine innings, Gilbert's 0.65 HR/9 rate is by far the team's best. Gilbert also leads all Mariners starters in FIP (3.02), xFIP (3.62), WAR (1.9), and BABIP (.264). In addition, his K-BB% (17.9%) is second only to rookie George Kirby. 

Angels slugger Mike Trout has homered once in three at-bats against Gilbert, but the Mariners righty has done well to keep Los Angeles' other big bats at bay. Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani, and Jared Walsh are a combined 4-for-20 against Gilbert.

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Los Angeles counters with Patrick Sandoval (3-2, 2.70), who has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his previous six starts. In his last start against Seattle, Sandoval held the Mariners to just one earned run on four hits over six innings, and his five strikeouts were the second-most among his last four starts.

Mariners hitters have had 113 career at-bats against Sandoval, and his 28.1 strikeout percentage in that span is much higher than his career average. Sandoval has also held Mariners hitters to a .168 ISO, .267 BABIP, .224 xBA, .371 xSLG, .271 xOBP, and .280 xOBA. Seattle's offense has been held to two or fewer runs in eight of its last 13 games, and we expect Sandoval to get the better of them again. 

The under has cashed in each of the last four meetings (which involved two shutouts) between the Mariners and Angels, and no game in that span has totaled more than seven runs. With each team sending two of its best pitchers to the mound, we expect another low-scoring battle.

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Pick

• PICK: Mariners-Angels UNDER 8 Runs (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)