Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Pick: Can Tyler Wells Mount Up The Strikeouts?

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Pick: Can Tyler Wells Mount Up The Strikeouts?

The Mariners head back home after their two-series road trip to take on the Orioles in a three-game series from T-Mobile park. I was looking through the props for today, as I always do, and one caught my eye. This prop is on 27-year-old pitcher Tyler Wells, who will start tonight for the Baltimore Orioles. This prop is backed by a strong 0-14 trend this year, and Wells has not his thin line this season in 14 starts.

Here is my pick, prediction, and odds for Monday's game between the Seattle Mariners and the Baltimore Orioles.

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Mariners vs. Orioles Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: June 27, 2022
• Game Time: 10:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MSN2, RSNW

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Mariners vs. Orioles Line Movement

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Tyler Wells started solely out of the bullpen in 2021 but has since been upgraded to the starting rotation in 2022. His numbers are surprisingly good, and he is 5-4 with a 3.34 ERA over 14 starts this season. Although Wells has done well this season, he has not emerged as a strong strikeout pitcher. Instead, he works on getting by with soft contact and ground balls. He wasn't this way initially, though. Last season, when Wells was pitching out of the bullpen, he had a 29% strikeout rate, which was well above the 22% average. This season, Wells' strikeout rate has fallen significantly to 15%, putting him in the 8th percentile of MLB pitchers in the 2022 season. So what changed?

Well, Wells was basically a four-seam slider pitcher last season. He threw his fastball 56% of the time and his slider 27% of the time. Wells has since changed his pitch arsenal to work in a changeup and curveball much more often. Wells now throws his fastball 39% of the time and his slider 24% of the time, making room for his other off-speed pitches. This led to Wells getting fewer strikeouts but ultimately pitching better with a lower ERA because he gets much more soft contact. Wells went from an 11% barrel rate in 2021 to 6.9% in 2022. he also gets 17% more ground balls. All this to say, you can probably guess today's prop bet.

Tyler Wells' strikeout prop is set at 4.5 today. This is a number that Wells has not hit in any of his 14 starts this season. He has hit four a few times but has not eclipsed four once. The Mariner's bats aren't perfect, but they strike out at the 12th lowest rate against right-handed pitching this season. The under on 4.5 strikeouts for Wells is 14-0 this season. This is a trend I can and will get behind. Hopefully, the Mariners see the ball well today.

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Pick

Play: Tyler Wells U4.5 K's @ -165 (Bet $165 to win $100)

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