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The St. Louis Cardinals host the Miami Marlins in the first game of their three-game series tonight? Who's going to take the first game? Ben Rajavuori answers.
ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Prediction: Can The Cardinals Bats Get the Better of Pablo Lopez?

As Mondays almost always bring new series, we have another one here in St. Louis tonight. The 33-38 Marlins travel to Busch Stadium to take on the 41-34 Cardinals. The Cardinals have been flirting with first place in the NL Central and are in a close battle with the Brewers, who currently sit one game ahead. The Marlins, Meanwhile, sit fourth in the NL East, which appears to be one of the tougher divisions in 2022. So who is poised to take game one of this three-game series? Let's dive into my prediction, picks, and odds for the Cardinals vs Marlins game.

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Cardinals vs. Marlins Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 27, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSF, BSMW, MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings

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Cardinals vs. Marlins Line Movement

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

The Cardinals will send out 40-year-old MLB veteran Adam Wainwright tonight, who has proven to be a solid bet the last few years. The trusty vet has proven to be a solid bet, as the Cardinals have won seven of the nine games Wainwright has started the previous two months. Wainwright is also a strong home bet, as his ERA lowers to 2.68 when he is in Busch Stadium.

Wainwright is coming off back-to-back iffy starts, both of which were on the road. Adam was tagged for four runs in 4.2 against the Brewers on June 22nd, and in his previous start, Adam was tagged for another four runs in 6.1 innings. Both were against solid offenses, with the Red Sox being the overall MLB leader in batting average this season.

Now Wainwright starts against the Marlins, who have the 24th-lowest batting average on the road. Wainwright already has one start against the Marlins this year, and he went 5.2 innings, allowing one run on a solo home run in a game the Cardinals won 5-1. This seems like a solid bounce-back spot for Adam Wainwright.

The Marlins send ace Pablo Lopez to the mound tonight. Lopez is 5-3 this season with a 2.61 ERA. Lopez went the month of April with a .39 ERA and was the MLB leader in ERA up until June. Now, Lopez has seen a bit of regression. Lopez is 1-1 in June with a 4.56 ERA, and it was even higher before a seven-inning shutout in his last start against the Rockies at home.

However, Lopez was hit around in his previous two road starts against two tough teams in the Mets and Astros, and now he faces another high-powered offense in the Cardinals. Lopez faced the Cardinals once this season, already in his third start of the season. This was in the middle of his fantastic month of April, and he was dealing at the time. Over June, however, he has shown to be a bit more human, regressing back to his career numbers. Lopez has allowed a .213 batting average to hitters this season, and his xBA is .252. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinals get to him more than they did at the beginning of the season.

The Marlins are a decent team this year, but they are 19-16 at home and 14-22 on the road. They do work behind their strongest starter tonight, but I think a little of the magic Lopez had at the beginning of the season has worn off. Despite Lopez's dominance early in 2022, the Marlins are only 8-6 in his starts. Run support could be an issue against Adam Wainwright. Back the Cardinals to take the series opener.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Pick

2U Play: Cardinals ML @ -126 (Bet $126 to win $100)

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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