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The Reds and Cubs open a three-game series at Wrigley Field tonight, and MLB expert Mike Spector offers his analysis for the best play on tonight's total.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Will The Cubs Bats Get The Better Of Luis Castillo?

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series at Wrigley Field tonight, as the Reds look to springboard ahead of the Cubs and out of the cellar of the NL Central. 

Both teams are looking for a leg up in their head-to-head season series, as they have split the first four meetings this year. And both teams are coming off impressive and surprising series victories, as the Cubs won two out of three on the road against the Cardinals, while the Reds took two out of three from the Giants in San Francisco. 

For Chicago, the latest series win was it's second in the last three. Can they continue that momentum in tonight's series opener? Or will Cincinnati win back-to-back games for the first time in two weeks?

Read on for our prediction best play, and odds for Tuesday's series opener between the Cubs and Reds.

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Cubs vs Reds Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 28, 2022
  • Match Time: 8:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSO, BSMW, MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings

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Cubs vs Reds Line Movement

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Cincinnati's Luis Castillo (2-4, 3.71) is coming off an outing where he allowed a season-high four earned runs to the Dodgers, though he did rack up six strikeouts. Before that, Castillo had made quality starts in five of his last six appearances. Four of those quality starts came on the road, and three of them were against teams with explosive lineups, as he held the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Cardinals to a combined three earned runs in 18 innings while posting a 3:1 K:BB ratio.

Castillo is opposed by Chicago's Keegan Thompson (7-2, 3.10), who has allowed one run on six hits over his last 12 innings against the Braves and Pirates. Thompson is making his first career start against the Reds, though he made four relief appearances against them last season and did not allow a run in that span.

For Castillo to earn his sixth quality start in the last seven outings, he will have to pitch much better against a pair of Cubs hitters. Wilson Contreras and Ian Happ are a combined 15-for-37 (.405) with two home runs against Castillo, and the rest of the Cubs hitters are 16-for-50 (.320) against him. And considering these two teams rank in the top-11 in the league in batting average over the last seven days, there is an avenue for each to score runs despite what is considered an above-average pitching matchup.

The over has cashed in five of Cincinnati's last six games and is 5-2 in Chicago's last seven games following a win. And considering these teams have two of the four-worst bullpen ERAs in the league, we should see plenty of runs scored late even if both starting pitchers have success early.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pick

PICK: REDS-CUBS OVER 8.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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