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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here with his top MLB player prop bet for Wednesday. His pick comes from the Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates game with his sights set on Paolo Espino.

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can Paolo Espino Pile Up Strikeouts?

The MLB is rolling teams out left and right during the day today so we might as well bet the games. We don't want these guys playing for nothing. I was going to jump on the noon ET game but honestly, it didn't feel right. Especially when I saw that the game below it was the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals. There are multiple pitchers on the Nationals that owe me money so naturally, it's smart to find out who's pitching. Lucky for us, I saw a name that I was happy to see. We're talking about a guy who has probably been waiting since last Friday night to get a shot at redemption. It's a shame they make these guys wait five days to pitch or else our guy would have already paid us back. Especially at the weak number the books hung on him today. This is the perfect bet to get a day of gambling going.

Nationals vs. Pirates Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 29, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Nationals vs. Pirates Odds

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Nationals vs. Pirates Line Movement

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Paolo Espino Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-128) (Bet $128 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel*

We're at FanDuel since they are offering the best price on our boy. DraftKings is hanging 3.5 (-135) so they aren't far off but obviously, we should go with the best price. That's clearly FanDuel. On top of that, FanDuel has the ladders so if we wanted to go 5+ (+180) on Paolo, nobody is going to stop us. It's actually encouraged. Gotta love a book that lets us shoot for the moon every day.

The haters will say Paolo Espino isn't even a strikeout guy. They are probably going to call him a 5'10", 211-pound fraud who shouldn't be in the major leagues. Don't listen to those people. Those are just mean things to say about a guy. I would never. Our guy Paolo has 30 strikeouts in 40.2 innings of work this season. That's not great but that's far from fraudulent behavior. That's actually perfect for getting 3.5s at a great price.

The thing about Paolo is he's only started three games this season. The first one doesn't even count since he only went 53 pitches. They were just trying to stretch him out. How is he supposed to strike guys out if he's not in the game? It's just not possible. Things changed in his last two starts though when the powers that be let him loose to throw 89 pitches in each game. He fanned at least three guys in each game (five in one start). Turns out Paolo is just a good opponent away from a decent strikeout game.

Paolo is getting a good opponent for strikeouts today in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over the last two weeks, no team in MLB has struck out more than the Pirates. Not one. We're talking 142 whiffs in only 492 at-bats. That's 28+% of the time people. As a team! There's nothing stopping the Pirates from trotting out at least eight guys today that has whiffed at least 26% of the time over the last two weeks. I'm not a math guy but that feels like a good team to target for at least four strikeouts. I think Paolo is going to pay us back the cash he owes us today.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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