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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here with another top MLB player prop bet for Thursday. His pick comes from the early Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins game with his sights set on Jose Ramirez.
ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Best Bet: Can We Bank on Jose Ramirez to Lead the Guardians Lineup?

The board is bare today so we'll need something more than strikeout props. I'm thinking a total base prop. Do I know anything about baseball other than strikeout props? No. In fact, I'd say I know less than nothing about baseball if you take away strikeout props. That's the beauty of gambling. Even though all of the above is true, I can still bet on it if I want to. Merica.

So with that in mind, the smartest thing any of us can do is take something in the early tilt between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians. For starters, the game is on in the middle of the day. On top of that, it's on MLB Network so we can watch if we want. I feel like the fact that it's on television is reason enough. If you think about it, what are we really doing during the day that's better than gambling? Exactly.

Let's dive into my best bet, prediction, and odds for the Guardians vs Twins game.

Guardians vs. Twins Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 30, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSGL, BSN, MLB.TV

Click Here for Guardians vs Twins Odds

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Guardians vs. Twins Line Movement

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Best Bet

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

We're at DraftKings for this one since FanDuel wants -120 for 2+ bases. I'm not a total bases expert but I do know that even money is way better than -120. I checked BetMGM and they want -105 for 1.5 which is ok but still not as good as even money. The only case you can make for any other book than DraftKings is the fact that FanDuel offers 3+ at +165 but I'm out on that. Might as well take the guy to hit a homer.

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Jose Ramirez is my kind of hitter. He's only 5'9" tall and 190 pounds so he's about as compact as they get. It's hard to pitch to guys like that. It just is. My favorite part about him as a hitter is the fact that he just doesn't really strike out. We're talking about a .075 strikeout guy here people. He knows that if you put the ball in play, you have a chance of getting on base. It's science.

Since we're doing total bases, I figure we should take a guy that gets a lot of them. It makes sense when you think about it. So far this season, only three guys have more total bases than Ramirez. He's actually tied with Mike Trout so you know he's legit. Plus, he's third in MLB this season in doubles. When we're talking about an over 1.5 total bases bet, doubles are a pretty big deal. That's just math.

Bet $10, Win $200 on any MLB Moneyline

I think the previous history against a pitcher is pretty important when doing total bases so I went there and found something. In 12 career at-bats versus Twins' starter, Chris Archer, Ramirez has five hits. One of those was a dong and you'd have to imagine at least one of the other ones was a double or triple. (I didn't see those numbers so I'm just guessing there.) Archer has been pitching well lately but he's not allowed to go far in games. When he leaves, we'll see a Twins bullpen that's bottom 10 in hits allowed this season. Point is, Ramirez should get at least four at-bats today and they should all come against guys he can hit. This feels right.

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Article Author

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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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