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MLB expert and handicapper Jason Radowitz is back with his top MLB bets and parlay picks for Thursday's small slate. He breaks down his two parlays for us here with his top moneyline and total runs picks.
ANALYSIS

MLB Parlay Picks for Thursday: Cash In With This Expert's +596 Parlay

Due to popular demand, we're adding an article at Oddschecker that consists of two parlays. I'm going to add two different parlays, one being a moneyline parlay and the other being a totals parlay in the MLB daily. You can always mix and match these parlays where you see the value! Head to the Oddschecker MLB Odds grid to see complete odds for every game today on the board.

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MLB Moneyline Parlay Picks (+478) (Bet $100 to win $478)

  • Guardians (-165)
  • Pirates (+100)
  • Cubs (-125)

The Guardians will send out Shane Bieber to go up against Chris Archer of the Twins. This is a major pitching mismatch between the two pitchers as Bieber is now striking out over 30% of batters in the last 30 days. The Twins have also struck out with their projected lineup over 21% of the time and have six batters striking out over 20% in the last 30 days. I'll trust the Guardians here.

It'll be Adrian Houser on the mound against the Pirates tonight. Houser has had a 4.74 xFIP in the last 30 days and has been rocked by lefties during that time frame. The Pirates have a .198 ISO and wOBA of .311 in the last 30 days against righties and will have seven lefties in the lineup to go up against Houser. Meanwhile, J.T. Brubaker will get the start for the Pirates and while he's been just as bad, he's at least limiting walks and should have an easier time getting through the Pirates order knowing only two hitters have a wOBA higher than .330 against righties in the last 30 days.

Kyle Hendricks will take the mound for the Cubs tonight. He has struggled against lefties a lot more than righties in the last 30 days. But he'll face just two lefties in the Reds lineup tonight. On the other hand, Graham Ashcraft has struggled more against righties and will take on six righties in the Cubs lineup. The Cubs also have a .334 wOBA as a projected lineup against righties. Back the Cubs.

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MLB Total Runs Parlay Picks +596 (Bet $100 to win $596)

  • Braves vs. Phillies Under 8.5 (-110)
  • Yankees vs. Astros Under 7.5 (-105)
  • Athletics vs. Mariners Under 7.5 (-115)

This game screams under with Aaron Nola on the bump for the Phillies. Nola has a 3.71 xFIP in the last 30 days along with high strikeouts and low walks. On the other hand, Ian Anderson hasn't been as good. But has earned nearly 50% of ground balls while also striking out nearly 25% of batters. The Phillies likely win this game but the score will be low.

The Astros will likely be without Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena after a collision in the outfield last night. That hurts the Astros lineup. With Luis Severino on the mound, nothing will be easy for the Astros as Severino has had a 2.69 xFIP in the last 30 days. On the other hand, Luis Garcia has a 3.96 xFIP in the last 30 days and has pitched much better at home. I'll take the under.

Logan Gilbert will take the mound for the Mariners with a 4.18 xFIP in the last 30 days. He's got 24% of strikeouts in those 30 days with under 6% of walks. Meanwhile, the Athletics have a .126 ISO and wOBA of .287 against righties in the last 30 days. Gilbert should have no problem shutting down the A's. On the other hand, Adrian Martinez will get his second start of the season for the Athletics. In his first start, he had a 2.66 xFIP with no walks through 21 plate appearances. I know it was against the Tigers, but it was still a solid outing where he pitched into the 6th inning. I'll take the under.

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Article Author

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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