Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction: Can The Mariners Get The Win Behind Logan Gilbert?
The Seattle Mariners have quietly played solid baseball lately, clinching their third consecutive series win yesterday. It has not exactly been a murderer's row of opponents, as Seattle has bested three teams that are at least four games under .500 and two of which are in last place in their division.
One of those teams is the Oakland Athletics, who Seattle swept in three road games last week while out-scoring them 19-3 in the process. That improved the Mariners' record to 21-7 in their previous 28 head-to-head meetings with the Athletics, and they have won seven of their last nine meetings in Seattle.
Will the rivalry stay one-sided for at least another night, or can Oakland pull the upset
Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Thursday's series opener between the Athletics and Mariners.
Mariners vs Athletics Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: June 30, 2022
- Game Time: 10:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: NBCSC, RSNW, MLB.TV
Mariners vs Athletics Line Movement
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction
On paper, this series opener has a significant starting pitching mismatch, which is largely why Seattle's moneyline odds (-215) are so steep.
Logan Gilbert (8-3, 2.44) ended April as the best pitcher in the American League, going 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in four starts. Though his ERA has regressed to the mean since then, he has remained consistent, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 14 of 15 starts this season. In addition, he has been an innings eater of late, pitching at least six innings in seven of the last eight.
As a result, he is expected to out-pitch Oakland's Adrian Martinez (1-0, 0.00), who is making just his second Major League start. Though Martinez threw 5.1 scoreless innings in his debut against Detroit, he pitched to a 5.63 ERA at Triple-A this year, suggesting his numbers will soon regress in the big leagues.
Out of fear that the unfamiliarity with Martinez will limit Seattle's bats the first couple of times through the order, the two best bets in this game involve Gilbert's props. Gilbert has +145 odds to record a win, and we also do not consider his -175 odds to record over 17.5 outs too steep since he has done that so often over the last two months. Moreover, Oakland's offense ranks dead last with a .600 OPS and .211 batting average, so Gilbert should be able to give his team six solid innings.
The Athletics are 0-14 in their last 14 night games against American League opponents. In addition, they are at a significant scheduling disadvantage having to fly across the country after yesterday's game against the Yankees while the Mariners remained in the comfort of their home stadium. Thus, we would not put anyone off laying the -215 moneyline odds or the -1.5 runs with Seattle's runline. However, by backing Gilbert to record a win at plus-money odds, one is essentially backing the Mariners to be victorious, just with the caveat that they need to jump on the Athletics early.
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Picks
- Logan Gilbert to Record a Win (+145) (Bet $100 to win $145)
- Gilbert to Record OVER 17.5 Outs (-175) (Bet $175 to win $100)
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