Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can We Count on Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Can We Count on Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals?

Phillies vs. Cardinals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 1, 2022
• Game Time: 6:05 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Phillies vs. Cardinals Line Movement

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Predictions

The Phillies and Cardinals kick off a three-game series from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia tonight in what will be a hot one. It will be hot and humid in Philly tonight, and the wind is also blowing out to center. As a result, I have a two-unit max play and a few props for tonight's series opener.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Pick

• 2U Play: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-140) (Bet $140 to win $100)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Player Props

This one doesn't require much explanation. The Cardinals are fourth in the MLB with a .271 average against left-handed pitchers this year. Bailey Falter has not been very good, either. Falter is 0-2 with a 4.5 ERA on the season, and his ERA jumps to 5.06 at home. The Cardinals are a matchup nightmare for Falter.

Falter throws 50% fastballs, and the Cardinals eat fastballs alive, specifically Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Nolan Gorman (we'll come back to that). Falter also gets more fly balls than the average pitcher, producing 45% fly balls or pop-ups on all balls in play. That, in combination with the weather, sounds like a combo for many balls at or over the fence. The Cardinals have the fifth-best overall OPS over the last week in the MLB, and that's not even including their higher average against lefties. They should put up five runs tonight.

I mentioned Goldschmidt's success against fastballs earlier, which is one reason we are backing him to go yard tonight. The other reason is because of Goldschmidt's insane split against left-handed pitching. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .442 with a 1.367 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Yes, you read those numbers right. He has hit 8 doubles and 4 home runs in 52 at-bats against lefties, meaning he has an extra-base hit every 4.3 at-bats against lefties. Goldschmidt is the only hitter in the MLB, hitting over .400 against left-handed pitching. It's not like he's barely hitting .400 either; he's almost at .450. That is an insane number against a shaky pitcher with the wind blowing out on a hot night. So yeah, I'm going to take him to hit one out of the yard tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Picks

• .5U Prop Play: Paul Goldschmidt HR (+240) (Bet $100 to win $240)
• 1U Prop Play: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Bases (-140) (Bet $140 to win $100)

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