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We’re dabbling into a market I rarely bet find value in today. Here is my best bet and prediction for Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins game tonight.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Best Bet: Will the Bats Be Quieted by Trevor Rogers and Josiah Gray?

We’re dabbling into a market I rarely bet find value in today. Here is my best bet, prediction, and odds for the Nationals vs Marlins game tonight.

Nationals vs. Marlins Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 1, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click Here for Nationals vs Marlins Odds

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Nationals vs. Marlins Line Movement

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Best Bet

1u - WAS/MIA u5.5 F5 Runs (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)

*Odds available at BetMGM Alt Line at time of publishing*

This is not the standard number, this is an alt line. Most books have this for five which I am okay with too. I like the 5.5 more because of no pushes at five obviously.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

So why do I like this bet? First off, I think the game total of 9.5 is too much but I don’t trust these bullpens at all. Josiah Gray is a guy we pick on a lot but he has looked much improved lately. Gray has only allowed four runs over his last five games and he has pitched 29 innings in that span. That is better than allowing one run every seven innings, the dude is on a tear. He has weird splits where he throws worse at home but I like my “law of averages” nonsense to think that the number will move closer to normal with time.

Trevor Rogers is on the mound for Miami and he isn’t as bad as his stats suggest. He has gone against this same Nationals team twice and dealt both times. He allowed two runs in one start and one run in the other start. Both would be perfectly fine by me if he replicated tonight. Rogers is due some positive regression, I personally don’t think he is as bad as his ERA suggests. Josiah Gray has plenty of history vs Miami as well which will likely mean he improves vs them and we are already seeing it. In Gray’s last start against Miami, he didn’t allow a single run.

I think this has the potential to be sweat-free cash. Both pitchers have success vs the opposing team and neither offense is too scary. I never dabble in this market but this seems worth it. I like to wrap up these articles by giving my top pivot but for this one, the only ones I would consider are the team total f5 unders for either side. I really want to avoud the bullpens here. I know betting unders isn’t fun but we are here to make money, not have fun. Looking back you’ll think it was a lot of fun, let's root for some quick outs and not sweat this one at all.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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