Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can Luis Castillo and Charlie Morton Dominate Early?

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can Luis Castillo and Charlie Morton Dominate Early?

The Atlanta Braves are charging hard in the NL East. After outscoring the Cincinnati Reds 13-2 in the first two games of this series, Atlanta has won four of its last five, moving them a season-high 13 games over .500. More importantly, the Braves start the day 2.5 games behind the Mets in the division.

Atlanta is looking to start July exactly how they began June, with an MLB-best 14-game winning streak, and it ended last month with an N.L.-best 21-6 record. 

Cincinnati has headed the exact opposite direction, losing its fourth straight game and tenth straight home game. The ten-game home losing streak is its longest since 1986, and while Atlanta is the most games it has been over .500, the Reds are now a season-high 25 games under .500.

Does all of this suggest the Braves are in line for another rout this afternoon, or can Cincinnati avoid tying the 11-game home losing streak it endured in 1986?

Read on for our prediction, best play, and odds for Sunday’s series finale between the Braves and Reds.

Reds vs. Braves Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: July 3, 2022
• Game Time: 1:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

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Reds vs. Braves Line Movement

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction

Atlanta’s Charlie Morton (4-3, 4.73) is making his second start against Cincinnati this year. In the first start, he allowed two hits and two runs in 5.1 innings on April 8, a game which the Braves won 7-6. Opposing Morton is Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo (3-4, 3.32), who has pitched to a 2.83 ERA in his last seven starts and recorded 48 strikeouts in his previous 41.1 innings.

In a stacked Braves rotation with Max Fried pitching like an ace, Spencer Strider looking like a star in the making, and Ian Anderson providing consistent starts, the veteran Morton at times has looked like Atlanta’s most vulnerable starting pitcher. While that may be true, Morton has had the Reds’ number, as current Reds hitters are a combined 18-for-67 (.269) against him. However, the most impressive part is that just one of those hits has left the yard and has held the Reds to a .111 ISO and .322xSLG. Those numbers suggest Cincinnati’s offense will once again be limited.

Castillo has a worrisome 5.14 ERA in four home starts this year, but he is coming off his best outing of the season when he allowed no earned runs in six innings and a season-high 11 strikeouts against the Cubs. We trust Castillo to use the momentum of that start to pitch well early tonight. However, we are limiting our wager to the first five innings, as the Reds' bullpen can implode in a heartbeat.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Pick

PICK: Braves-Reds First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 Runs (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)

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