Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Best Bet: Finding Value With Julio Urias and Kyle Freeland
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Best Bet: Finding Value With Julio Urias and Kyle Freeland
Dodgers vs. Rockies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: July 4, 2022
- Game Time: 9:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ATTR, SNLA
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Dodgers vs. Rockies Line Movement
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction
1u - Both Teams To Score 1+ Run First 5 Innings (-140) (Bet $140 to win $100)
BetMGM outdid themselves offering this one. I will play it safe and only play for 1 unit, but boy is it tempting to lay more. The pitching matchup is Julio Urias versus Kyle Freeland. The Dodgers are going to score in the 1st 5 innings, I don’t think that’s up for debate. Freeland has pitched against the Dodgers in 8.2 innings and has allowed 8 runs. Both times, he allowed early runs against this powerhouse Dodgers lineup. Freeland has allowed a run in 14/15 games and the only shutout was the Diamondbacks. I’m not sure that counts.
So this bet in my head is practically on if Urias allows a run. I feel like we get a discount here. His earned runs prop is 1.5 and the Rockies first 5 team total is 1.5. We need just one little run. In 7.1 innings pitched, the Rockies have scored 9 runs when Urias is on the mound over two games, only six of those are earned runs but still not great stats. Both games were at Coors Field, so we take it with a grain of salt, but there’s a bit of validity in those outings. The Rockies love nothing more than facing left-handed pitching. The Rockies bat a league-best .298 against southpaws. Insanity!
Lifetime these Rockies bats are 47-151 against Urias, which is good for a .311 average. Both pitchers have bad histories versus the teams, the total is 8.5 and all we need is for both teams to score once. It seems too good to be true. I don’t care if the final score is 2-1 as long as both teams scored once in the first 5 innings. BetMGM outdid themselves with this one. This bet doesn't have a direct pivot, but I would do everything you can to place this as BetMGM is a widely available Sportsbook. I lean Urias over 1.5 earned runs because he could go longer than 5 innings and the Rockies are so good against lefties, but I prefer my bet. Let's have a great holiday!
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