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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is here with a top MLB player prop bet for Monday afternoon. He's looking at the Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs game with his sights set on lefty Justin Steele.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction: Will Justin Steele Have a Strong Day?

On a day like July 4th, we need to be gambling just like our forefathers did over 200 years ago. Some would argue that their gamble in taking on the English was a little bigger than the ones we make on MLB games. I'm not here to say whether that's true or not, just pointing out that America was pretty much founded on a gamble. That seemed to work out for everyone.

So on a day like today, I think we should definitely be gambling and I also think we need a pretty large risk/reward bet. A "dumb" bet if you will but one that's dumb enough that it just might work. Lucky for us, I scoured the MLB lines the moment I woke up this morning and I found what will arguably go down as the dumbest bet on the board. This one is perfect for any Fourth of July celebration.

Brewers vs Cubs Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds

Date: July 4, 2022

Time: 4:10 pm ET

Where to Watch: BSW, MLB.TV

Click Here for Brewers vs Cubs Odds

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Brewers vs Cubs Line Movement

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Justin Steele Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+145) (Bet $100 to win $145)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

We're at DraftKings for this one as I don't see a number for him anywhere else. BetMGM has this market but for some reason, they don't have Steele posted. They have Eric Lauer listed for this game but not Steele. That's pretty suspect if you ask me. As for FanDuel, they never have this market so there's no use in looking there. Although it would be sweet to get ladders for outs recorded. Just something FanDuel should consider giving the people (us).

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

I'm just going to say it. This pick is pretty dumb. We're talking about Justin Steele here. Obviously a great name, especially for a pitcher although it would play for any other position as well. In fact, I think it would work for any other sport. We're talking hockey, football, basketball, or even soccer. There's just something about a guy named Steele. Everyone knows that.

The thing with Justin Steele is, in his first 10 starts of the season, he failed to go over 15.5 recorded outs nine times. Nine times. That's pretty bad. But that was early season Justin Steele. We're talking about the new Justin Steele here who has gone over this number three times in his last five starts. In his last start, he pitched in the sixth it's just that he failed to get anyone out. That kind of counts since he only threw 84 pitches to get there. We may be seeing an opportunity here people.

The other issue is the fact that Steele will be throwing to the Milwaukee Brewers. He's pitched against them three times this season and has yet to get the 16th out. Keep in mind, that the Brewers haven't seen new Justin Steele yet. Just the old one that couldn't go this far into a game. It should be noted that Steele only needed 77 pitches to go five innings against Milwaukee in his first start of the season. If that happened today, he would definitely pitch into the sixth inning. The Brewers are 21st in MLB in OPS against lefties so even though they are hot right now, they could struggle today. This might be a dumb bet but the price is right so it might be dumb enough to work.

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Article Author


John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.


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