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Handicapper and player prop expert John Hyslop is back with another top MLB player prop bet for Wednesday afternoon. This time he's looking at the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs game with his sights set on Adrian Sampson.
ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction: Can Adrian Sampson Shut Down Christian Yelich and the Brewers?

People are still saying you shouldn't bet games just because they're on during the day and you're bored, but I don't buy it. I think that's actually a dumb rule. In fact, I'd say the opposite. I've had more fun betting games simply because I had nothing better to do at the time they were on than betting anything else. Hell, that's how I figured out that soccer was the easiest sport in the world to beat. The reason I bring all this up is that the Chicago Cubs take on the Milwaukee Brewers today at 2:10 pm ET, and I have nothing better to do at that time. Obviously, the first thing you do in a situation like that is bet the game. Everyone knows that. Lucky for us, I found a play that has no chance of losing. This is called a win/win situation.

Brewers vs. Cubs Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Brewers vs. Cubs Odds

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Brewers vs. Cubs Line Movement

 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction

Adrian Sampson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings*

I'm at DraftKings for this one because they have a far better price than anyone else. BetMGM wants -135 for this one, while FanDuel is shaking people down for -142. It's madness on the streets. I'd say if you're playing at FanDuel, you might as well jump up to 5+ (+164). That's not that crazy. If you're really looking to be somebody, you could just go 6+ (+370) and instantly become a legend. It all depends on how good of a day you want to have.

Let me tell you about this Adrian Sampson guy. He's been around for a few years now. He's thrown 204 innings and only has 160 strikeouts to his credit, so I see why he's getting saddled with the 3.5 for a low price. You gotta prove it to the books, and I respect that about them. Obviously, despite having a strong name like Sampson, this kid has failed to gain the books' respect. That's on him.

The thing is, so far this season, the guy looks a little different. For starters, he's being used as a workhorse starter type. He's been a "whatever's needed" type pitcher for most of his career, but when given the chance to approach 100 pitches in a game, he's done alright. In fact, back in 2019, he went seven straight starts with at least four strikeouts. This season he's only started twice, but both times he went over 3.5. He hit the 100-pitch mark in his last start, so he's fully stretched out.

Today he's getting the Milwaukee Brewers, who have struck out fifth-most in MLB this season. During the day, they are a 26.8% strikeout team which is another good thing. They have six guys that could be in the lineup today that are all 30+% strikeout guys over the last two weeks, so there's that too. I'm guessing we'll see Clint Vondrak calling balls and strikes, which gives Sampson a boost too. That guy has a 23.6% strikeout rate, which is the ninth-highest among active MLB umpires since 2008. This feels like a great way to spend the afternoon.

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Article Author

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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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